Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

November 2020 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho area. My charts have 13 years of data showing major trends in the Boise metro housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

Boise Home Buyers Paid Over Asking in October

Housing demand in SW Idaho remains unusually strong for late fall, slowing only slightly in October. Competition is so stiff, that the average sale price was 1.3% HIGHER than asking on homes closed in October in the Boise Metro! We have record low mortgage rates, strong economy and population growth and inventory at record lows. It does not take a crystal ball to see home prices in Idaho will keep going up from here. Winter and the holidays should slow things down, but not for long.


Housing Inventory Shortage in Boise Metro

This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme conditions are in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Available listings have been trending lower each year as population grows and homes sell fast. How fast? On existing homes sold in October, half the homes sold (listing to offer acceptance)in the first 4 days in both counties! Most home sales are bidding wars and this means extreme upward price pressure.

These are active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

After spiking in the spring, available listings have continued downward to levels not seen before. Both Ada and Canyon counties started the year with the fewest homes available in decades and we are lower than that now.

The actual housing inventory is much lower than it appears, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below.


Q3 2020 Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County, Idaho

Home prices soared higher in the Boise area during the third quarter, especially in Ada County.

For the third quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $389,900 was up an amazing 11.5% from the previous quarter. That is a $40,000 jump in just 3 months! 

After that remarkable quarter in Ada County, the median existing home price is now up 17.66% compared to a year before. Sales have just started to slow, so I expect the fourth quarter gains to be positive also. We could end the year up over 20%. 

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gif

The Canyon County median existing home price of $282,500 for Q3 is up 5.8% from the previous quarter. That makes 6 months straight gaining $5k a month on the median priced home! In this crazy year, owning a home has paid better than some jobs. Year over year, the Q3 median for Canyon County is up 16.25%. Great returns and still climbing.


I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile and seasonal. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. These stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.


Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, but the peaks and valleys have consistently moved upward in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.

These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County, which has also been steadily climbing. The cheapest new home sold in Ada last month was again a townhouse for $325,000.

We started strong for 2020, and after a covid blip, have surpassed last year with a huge surge. Now it looks like sales have peaked for the year.

Canyon County home sales have also been trending steadily upward with population growth and still going strong. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017. The Covid blip was a little more extreme here than Ada, but short.

New Construction closings were surging in Canyon County and appear to have resumed a strong pace. This is great for the economy and easing the housing shortage. The cheapest new home sold in Canyon last month was $204,323 for a townhouse.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.


Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation

Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. NAR's table holds true- with supply under one month, prices are up double-digits annually in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley in late 2020. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence.

If no more homes were listed, we would run out in just over 1 week! In a typical year, supply starts climbing after sales peak in June/July. This year, the peak was very late, prolonging the upward pressure on home prices.


Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes.

Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year in favorable weather and between school years. This year, regular sellers have dwindled, causing the shortage to intensify.

New construction in Ada County now accounts for just over half the listings and sales. Only a few are listed to-be-built. The rest are under construction or complete- new never occupied. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.

Prior to the shutdown, we had the fewest existing homes available in decades, now even fewer. Regular sellers of existing homes have been trending lower each year as demand continues to build and not enough homes are listed for sale in Ada County to meet that demand.

In the new construction segments- building is slowing down in Ada County. I see no danger of builders out-pacing demand with 326 available new homes (only 175 finished) for sale in Ada County. This represents less than a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 391 sold in October. That is a fraction of what a normal supply level would be.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- a default notice only means payments are late and gives owners 120 days to cure the default. Very, very few homes actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho now.


Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends. Boise is booming and home prices & rents are rising.

For October, Boise had 509 existing home sales (Med $374,900 Avg $445,037 Average days on market 9, median 4 days!)

From recession to boom over the last 13 years. This charts shows the count of active and pending home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Boise still is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter, and why this chart is so inverted from a normal market. 

These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had a mere 280 (down 30) total homes for sale on Nov 1st. New construction segments shrunk back to only 44 percent of the pie this month, as the virus has caused some disruption for builders. To-be-built listings continue to shrink.


Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in home prices.

For October, Meridian had 223 existing homes sold (Med $375,000 Avg $443,998 Average days on market 9, median 3 days!)

Look at that gap in my chart! Listings have dried up here. Meridian has again fewer homes available this month and the supply of homes fell under a week- unbelievable. This will drive home prices higher right through winter.

Meridian had only 125 total homes listed for sale on Nov 1st and now 69 percent of the pie is new construction. Major growth here, but lately fewer homes under construction (34) or newly built (49). Looks like a good time to buy a new home in Meridian with a few choices.


Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find the largest homes.

For October, Eagle had 92 existing homes sold (Med $626,495 Avg $781,355 Avg days on market 12)

Eagle listings have plummeted in the last few months, while buyer activity is strong. This month, Eagle had again many fewer homes available, as contract signings are much stronger than new listings. Now with a one week overall supply of homes for sale in Eagle, still very tight market where prices should rise.

With 54 total homes for sale on Nov 1st, and now 43 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 10 homes completed and 6 under way.


Star, Idaho

A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute (30 mins to airport/Boise) and a great name.

For October, Star had 29 existing homes sold (Med $449,900 Avg $539,055 Avg days on market 13)

What is going on in Star? I have to keep checking my numbers when I see this chart- an extremely wide disparity in the trend lines. Sales have exploded, but listings have fallen off. Now with just a 0.08-month supply of homes for sale- lowest in the metro (ever), I see home prices rising fast here.

Star had only 19 total homes for sale on Nov 1st and 13 of them are new construction. There are only 2 new homes finished and 10 under way.


Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes under 20 years old. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

For October, Kuna had 52 existing home sales (Med $337,500 Avg $362,838 Avg days on market 10, median 3 days!)

Kuna's demand for homes is trending upward. However, inventory is extremely low (only 0.41-month supply) and this will hold down sales too. Prices are most likely to rise here.

Kuna had 94 total homes for sale on Nov 1st and now 88 percent of available homes are new construction. Many homes being built or finished- great time to buy new in Kuna. Buyers can expect stiff competition for existing homes here and that means rising prices.


Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

Sales are up over last year as the county grows. Housing supply is very low, but builders are losing momentum even with strong demand. Now only 41% of the available homes in Canyon County are new construction.

Canyon county new construction was booming, but homes under construction have fallen back. Almost no foreclosed and short sales here.

As of Nov 1st, there are only 86 total new homes on the market, up a little from last month. The cheapest new home sold was $228,199 in Canyon County last month.


Nampa, Idaho

With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too, due to strong demand and low supply.

For October, Nampa had 216 existing home sales (Med $292,950 Avg $336,115 Avg days on market 12, median 4 days!)

One of the strongest markets in the valley this year, Nampa's pending homes greatly outnumber those actively for sale. Supply did grow last month, which may be a sign of slowing. Now with just under a 2-week supply of homes on the market, I expect Nampa home prices to keep climbing fast, possibly right through winter.

Nampa had only 106 total homes for sale on Nov 1st. Now only 44 percent of the available homes are new construction.


Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.

For October, Caldwell had 118 existing home sales (Med $273,950 Avg $293,288 Avg days on market 13, median 3 days!)

Contract signings surged in Caldwell this summer/fall, but have peaked for the year. The supply of homes in Caldwell is still a very slim 0.22-month supply. One week supply is amazing- never thought I would see it. Home prices should keep climbing in Caldwell late this year.

Caldwell had only 58 total homes for sale on Nov 1st. New construction now makes up 50 percent of the pie this month with 17 new homes completed, 1 to-be-builts and 11 under construction.


Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

For October, Middleton had 39 existing homes sold (Med $399,900 Avg $455,941 Avg days on market 8)

As of Nov 1st, Middleton now has a 0.2-month supply as listings dried up some more. Expect home prices to continue upward in Middleton.

Middleton had only 23 total homes for sale on Oct 1st with just one newly built home available.


All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.

Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706