Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

October 2019 Update (Just added Q3 Medians)
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here's what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho area. My charts show over a decade of perspective on current trends in the Boise metro housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

October... Home sales continued to slow in September with cooler weather. Buyers have a little more time to shop & think, but supply remains very low throughout the Boise Metro- especially in Boise and Kuna & Nampa- the hottest markets right now. For sellers, not much prime selling weather left may add motivation.

Mortgage interest rates are extremely low and favorable for buying a home or investment. Locking in a rate this low would be a huge benefit for years to come.

Home prices are up, but don't hold your breath for a downturn. With this housing shortage and strong economy, it could be years before prices soften. In fact, NAR predicted in July that Boise-Nampa Metro home prices would rise 4th fastest in the nation in the next year, jumping over 9%. It could easily be higher!

If you are holding investment properties in the Boise area, I can almost guarantee your equity has grown greatly and your overall return on investment has shrunk. Should you keep it, sell, exchange or refinance? Can you get a better return on your money? Ask me what your current value and return on equity is.

For more housing stats (after you look at mine) see the August 2019 Housing & Economic Report for Ada County loaded with market trends and demographic data provided by the Boise Regional Realtors.

Housing Inventory Update in Boise Metro

The long view of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. The trend has been toward fewer available listings each year as population grows and homes sell fast. On existing homes sold inSeptember, average days on the market (listing to offer acceptance) grew slightly again to 23 days in Ada and 21 days in Canyon county. The median time on market was only 11 days- nearly half the homes listed sold in that time!

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These are active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Hundreds of these are to-be-built or under construction, so actual inventory is much lower than it appears. See my pie charts below. Available inventory has been trending lower for 5 years in a row and I see no sign of an increase yet with low mortgage rates helping affordability. This extremely low number of homes for sale is almost a guarantee that Boise area home prices will continue to rise.

Q3 2019 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

Home prices rose again with strong demand in the Boise area, but the rate of increase slowed in Q3, which matches the trend for the last few years.

For the third quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $331,450 was up only 2% from the previous quarter. Sales are actually down 7% year to date, due to low supply.

Year over year in Ada County the median existing home price is up 9% compared to Q3 of 2018.

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Canyon County's median existing home price of $243,000 for Q3 is up 3.45% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q3 median for Canyon County is up 11.1%. That's like 3-4 years of normal appreciation in one year!

Will home prices go higher? I find it helpful to compare our median home prices to other metros around the West and the national median. We have recently surpassed the national median. However, the Boise Metro median remains well below the more relevant West and indicates that our prices could go higher. For Q1 of 2019, Boise came in third again for fastest rising prices in metros on this list. The strongest appreciation is coming from in-migration as people relocate to more favorable and affordable areas.

NARMedians2019Q1.GIF


I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales


Home sales follow the typical four-seasonal trend in Idaho, but the peaks and valleys have consistently moved upward in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.

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These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month. I've added a line to show new construction. New construction in Ada County was really strong this spring as existing home prices are gaining on new. Both counties are showing the most ever new home sales this year.

Year over year sales have peaked lower (albeit only slightly) this year for the first time in 6 years. This was probably due to low inventory of existing homes, so I can't call this a sign of a downturn yet.

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Canyon County home sales have also been trending steadily upward with population growth and still going strong. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017.

New Construction has really ramped up in Canyon County this year! This may help to take some of the demand off existing homes in the future, but Canyon county supply levels are almost as low as Ada's right now.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes and new construction.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation


Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. NAR's table holds true- with supply near one month, prices are up double-digits annually in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley into 2020. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence.

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Housing supply is still bumping along near the low end of the scale.

Can we build our way out of the shortage? Not likely, because developing new subs takes time and builders (and their lenders) are more careful not to over-extend today. A slow-down in demand is more likely to solve the supply shortage than over-building. Also, prices on new construction remain substantially higher than existing homes.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

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The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year during optimum selling and moving weather.

Remarkably, now half the available homes in Ada County are new construction. And only 5% are to-be-built. The rest are under construction or complete. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

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Regular sellers of existing homes have been trending lower for 4 years as demand continues to build and not enough homes are listed in Ada County.

In the new construction segments- as of Oct 1st, the number of new homes finished and under construction are growing again as sales fall off. To-be-built listings have really faded. I see no danger of builders out-pacing demand with 939 new homes (only 414 built) for sale in Ada County. This represents at most a 3.3-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 285 sold last month.

Distressed homes? Almost none! Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Don't be fooled by the big websites that show all these pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- very few actually get sold at trustee sale auctions and almost none are going back to the banks.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

Boise had 391 existing home sales in September (Med $308,125 Avg $355,930 Average days on market 22)

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This charts shows the count of active and pending home listings on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. This includes all types of single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Boise has been one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter, driving home prices up. As of Oct 1st, homes under contract still outnumber homes for sale. The shortage eased slightly in July, but fewer listings were available every month since in Boise.

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These pie charts show the breakdown of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 761 total homes for sale on Oct 1st. More existing homes have been listed and new construction segments shrunk to 36 percent of the pie this month. To-be-built listings have really faded with fewer lots available to build on.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in home prices.

Meridian had 167 existing homes sold in September (Med $325,900 Avg $361,790 Average days on market 18)

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Meridian home sales also took off strong this spring, but have levelled off and new listings are gaining now. The supply of homes remains extremely tight (1.3 months) and I would not bet against brisk appreciation in home prices to continue this year.

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Meridian had 561 (up 11) total homes listed for sale on Oct 1st and now 64 percent of the pie is new construction. Major growth here with many homes under construction(179) or newly built (151) and waiting for buyers in anticipation of continued strong demand.

Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 74 existing homes sold in September (Med $487,500 Avg $596,743 Avg days on market 36)

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Eagle again has the highest supply levels of any city in the valley as contract signings have weakened this year. Still, with only a 1.7-month overall supply of homes for sale in Eagle, you can expect continued strong appreciation in home prices, but maybe a little more bargaining power for buyers.

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Eagle has seen a recent increase in both existing and new construction listings with 288 total homes for sale on Oct 1st. Now 43 percent of the available homes are new construction.

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute (30 mins to airport/Boise) and a great name.

Star had 24 existing home sales in September (Med $307,500 Avg $374,491 Avg days on market 26)

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Star home sales picked up again this spring, but are not as strong as last year. Now just over a month supply of homes for sale to start October. No reason to expect less than double-digit annual appreciation here, like the rest of the Treasure Valley.

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Star had 104 (up 15) total homes for sale on Oct 1st and now 65 percent of the available homes are new construction. There's now a bunch of new homes now finished and more coming.

Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes under 20 years old. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

Kuna had 46 existing home sales in September (Med $275,750 Avg $286,065 Avg days on market 24)

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Kuna's home sales were really strong this year, but pendings have slowed and new listings caught up. Kuna still has the valley's tightest supply including new construction and home prices are likely to jump near the most here in the next year.

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Kuna had 173 (down 3) total homes for sale on Oct 1st and now 73 percent of available homes are new construction. That's down from almost 90 percent earlier this year. Many homes being built or finished! Still, with less than a month supply buyers can expect competition on existing homes here.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

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More existing homes were listed last month, but almost as many went under contract. Now 54% of the available homes in Canyon County are existing.

Canyon county new construction is going strong with many more homes in progress. Completed homes are selling fast. Almost no foreclosed and short sales here.

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As of Oct 1st, there are 415 total new homes on the market, which is about a 3.4-month absorption rate, based on the 121 sold in Sept. That's not enough to relieve much pressure on low overall housing inventory. The cheapest new home sold was $213,990 in Canyon County last month.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too, due to strong demand and low supply.

Nampa had 200 existing home sales in September (Med $239,950 Avg $258,786 Avg days on market 19)

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One of the strongest and tightest markets in the valley, Nampa's pending homes did outnumber those actively for sale until this month. With only a 1.1-month supply of homes on the market, I expect Nampa's still affordable home prices to climb even higher.

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Nampa had 521 (up 57) total homes for sale on Oct 1st with an increase in existing homes listed and the new construction segments shrunk again to 53 percent of the pie.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 105 existing home sales in September (Med $226,000 Avg $240,456 Avg days on market 22)

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Contract signings really surged in Caldwell this year, but have plunged since and new listings are now gaining on demand. The supply of homes in Caldwell has grown to  a 1.6-month supply. Home prices will keep climbing in Caldwell.

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Caldwell had 229 (up 43) total homes for sale on Oct 1st, with more existing homes listed. New construction now makes up 43 percent of the pie this month with a bunch of new homes completed or under construction now.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

Middleton had 27 existing home sales in September (Med $287,000 Avg $332,810 Avg days on market 25)

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Middleton's new listings and contract signings both are way down after two very strong years. Supply remains low- only a 1.15-month supply. Look for home prices to continue upward in Middleton this fall.

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Middleton had 82 total homes for sale on Oct 1st with new construction segments growing to 42 percent of the pie as a few more homes where started and completed.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Dan Rowe Boise Id 83706