Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro Area
Q1 2021 Report


Q1 Was Strongest Quarter Ever in Boise Metro. Record low mortgage rates and growing population are driving unprecedented demand in the face of extremely low housing inventory and this is driving home prices up faster than ever. These conditions will not change quickly, so another year of double digit increases is my forecast for 2021.

Boise Metro Home Prices- Q1 2021
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. Monthly numbers are too small and erratic. I use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gifThe Ada County median existing home price for Q1 2021 jumped 11.26% from the previous quarter to $459,500. That is over three percent a month! Normally, first quarters are positive, but never this much, so this is a sign of pent-up demand and a strong year ahead. Year over year, the Ada County median existing home price ended the year up a remarkable 32.3%.

The Canyon County median existing home price for Q1 2021 accelerated an already strong pace, rising 11.48% from the previous quarter to $340,000. That is amazing ahead of the spring rush.

Year over year, the median in Canyon County is now up 34.9% when compared to Q1 of 2020.

Boise Median Home Price Comparison
This table helps you compare Boise Metro existing-home median prices and trends with national, regional and most relevant major metros covered by NAR in their quarterly report. Please note that NAR somehow blends prices together in metro areas and those numbers do not match our local MLS stats exactly.
Copyright 2021 National Association of REALTORSĀ®. All rights reserved.

Boise Metro home prices have appreciated very quickly over the last 3 years. We surpassed the national median in 2018, but remain well below the more relevant Western region. Ā 

The year over year column shows the change from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020. We are up an amazing 27.1% in that column, but we only came in SEVENTH for highest appreciation rate on the full list.


Housing Inventory Shortages
Locally, our supply levels are a fraction of normal and this is virtually a guarantee that prices will continue to climb.

It's hard to see in my chart, but supply finally gained on sales for the first time since last spring, although only slightly. We'll need many, many more listings for inventory levels to climb and price increases to slow down. Today in the Boise Metro, we have just a one week supply of homes. Half the homes sold in Ada/Canyon last month sold in 3 days! Buyers must be ready with financing lined up to make offers and compete against multiple bidders. A good agent/broker can help you get there fast, advise you on what it might appraise for and keep you from overpaying, balancing that with how many offers you are willing to make to secure a contract.

US Nearly 4 Million Homes Short
Boise Idaho is not the only place suffering from inventory shortages in housing. Freddie Mac's recent analysis found the US needs to build 3.8 million single-family homes to meet demand, factoring in household formation, second home purchases and replacement of damaged/aging homes. Before we can make gains on that shortfall, we need to build at least 1.1-1.2 million homes each year just to meet existing demand.
Source: The Wall Street Journal April 15, 2021 "US Housing Market Is Nearly 4 Million Homes Short of Buyer Demand"

I have many more charts in my Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
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Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706