Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro AreaQ2 2020 Report
2020 has been full of surprises, not all good. On the bright side- record low mortgage rates, making this a great time to buy and borrow on real estate. Most of my offers have been against multiple bidders lately, so it is also a great time to sell. Why not both? We are booming.
August Update- 96% of Major Metros See Escalating Home Prices
There's no local bubble in Boise home prices. NAR's numbers are out for the second quarter and Boise came in third on their list of fasting rising home prices among all major metros in the US. Nampa's huge gains helped as they are blended into NAR's Boise Metro prices.
Source: Home Prices Continue to Accelerate 8/12/20 Realtor Magazine
Boise Metro Home Prices- Q2 2020
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. Monthly numbers are too small and erratic. I use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.
The Ada County median existing home price for Q2 2020 was (surprisingly during a pandemic) up 0.7% from the previous quarter to $349,900. The spring rush was interrupted in April/May, but resumed with gusto is June. Normally, sales peak in June/July, but the rush has continued into the third quarter this year and prices should climb more than normal.
Year over year, the Ada County median existing home price is still up 7.66% from Q2 of 2019. I expect to see double-digits by year end.
The Canyon County median existing home price for Q2 2020 jumped an amazing 5.95% from the previous quarter to $267,000. That's $5k a month, during a pandemic! Year over year, the median in Canyon County is up 13.66% when compared to Q2 of 2019. Supply is extremely low, so do not miss out on the rest of this year, especially with mortgage rates setting new record lows.
Did Covid-19 Virus Cause a Downturn in Boise Idaho real estate?
Not really- more like a one-month blip in my charts. Here are my updates on 3 major indicators of a down-turn that I watch for.
1. Absorption Rate - A slowing here could be a sign of a weakening in prices. The 12-month average for 2019 in Ada County was 1644 total residential listings / 982 sales = 1.67-month absorption rate. Q1 2020 was 1.385 months. The absorption rate for Q2 was only 1.27 months- still falling and getting tighter.
Canyon County averaged 746 listings / 414 sales = 1.8-month absorption rate for all of 2019. Q1 2020 was 1.3 months. The absorption rate fell during Q2 to 1.08 months. Still getting extremely tight in Canyon County.
The national rate was 3-months as of year end.
2. Days on market - The 2019 average DOM for existing homes was 26 days in Ada county. For Q2 of 2020, the average was 16 days. For June, the average went up slightly to 17 days. Half of those sold in just 7 days.
The Canyon County average DOM was 29 for 2019. The average for Q2 2020 was 15 days. The average for June climbed to 17 days.
3. Discounts off asking - This chart shows all existing home sales through the first half of 2020 in Ada county. The discount is the difference between the average list and average sale price, not counting any closing costs paid by sellers.
Despite the shut-down, the discount off asking that sellers accept continues to shrink and many are bidding over asking to win. If anything, the Boise Metro housing shortage is intensifying.
I have many more charts! See My Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
I am always happy to answer real estate questions; recommend a good lender, provide a free CMA or neighborhood history, an investment analysis, should-I-refi-or-remodel questions, first-timer education, etc.