Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

July 2018 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here's what you need to know about buying or selling homes in the Boise Idaho area. I track here the last 10 years of trends and indicators in the Boise metro housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

July Home sales in SW Idaho usually peak in July and housing inventory starts growing after that. With this record-low supply, don't expect home prices to soften much until the winter, but buyers will have more choices.

Yes, it's a great time to sell a home near Boise. It's also a good time to buy, which is why the market is so hot. Sure, prices are up... and headed higher. More importantly, interest rates are still not far from record lows and must rise.

If you are holding investment properties, conditions are excellent (low rates) for taking some gains and reinvesting to upgrade your holdings and/or increase your leverage. For example, you've been holding a home for 10 years and the value is up $100k, now worth $250k. Your investment is not the original 20% down payment ($30k). It's what you could walk away with if you sold today. Now figure your return on $150k equity (your 20% down + 10 yrs principle reduction + appreciation). Not so great with five times as much invested. Ask me for an analysis on your current holdings and what you might replace it with.

Inventory Grows Slightly in Boise Metro in June

This 10-year history of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. The post-recession trend has been toward fewer available listings each year as population grows and homes sell so fast- with average days on the market of just 15 (Ada) and 16 (Canyon) days on existing homes sold in June.

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These are active listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction. Actual inventory is much lower than it appears because hundreds of these are to-be-built or under construction- see my pie charts below.

This chart begins a year after the June 2007 real estate peak, when sellers greatly outnumbered buyers and homes stayed on the market much longer. The recovery began in 2011 and the Boise Metro market had stabilized by 2014. Since then, fewer and fewer homes have been on the market, as demand has outpaced listings.

This extremely low number of homes actively for sale, is nothing short of a guarantee that Boise area home prices will continue to rise quickly. The good news for buyers- supply did rise slightly in June as more homes were listed for sale than went under contract.

Q2 2018 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

What a year to own Boise real estate!

For the second quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $286,118 is up 4.56% from the previous quarter. Year to date in Ada County the median is up 16.72%! That's almost 3 percent a month!

Because it's my job to help you build wealth through real estate, I must point out to renters that owning the median priced home in Ada county Idaho for the last 6 months would have added over $40,000 to your net worth. I see no signs yet of slowing, so it's not too late to ride the wave. You cannot afford to wait for interest rates to rise- call me today to buy a home.

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Canyon County's median existing home price of $201,000 for Q2 is up 8.64% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q2 median is up 16.86% in Canyon County!

I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile. I also ignore meaningless monthly prices. Quarterlies are much more reliable and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property, as some segments perform better or worse. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales


Home sales have followed the typical four-seasonal trend, but the peaks and valleys are consistently moving upward in these charts of homes sold per month.

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Homes sales have been in a very solid upward trend since 2008 in Ada County, including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna. Given the still low interest rates, strong local economy, low relative home prices and low cost of living we enjoy in SW Idaho, I don't see this trend changing yet.

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Canyon County home sales have also been in a solid upward trend over the last few years. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017- the worst winter in 30 years.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, new construction, short sales and repossessed homes.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at supply levels.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation


Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. Once again, NAR's table proves out- with supply tighter than ever at less than one month, prices are up double-digits in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley for the rest of this year.

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Can we build our way out of the shortage? Yes, but developing new subdivisions for homes to be built is a long process. Also, prices on new construction remain substantially higher than existing; for June the average new home sold for $71,500 more than existing homes in Ada County and $49,000 more in Canyon County.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory levels of homes for sale.

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The make-up of homes for sale changes constantly. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year during optimum selling and moving weather. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

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Regular sellers of existing homes are unmistakably trending downward over the last 3 years as demand continues to build from population growth and not enough homes are listed in Ada County.

Very few new homes get built without being sold first around Boise. It appears builders are falling behind demand a bit after a strong first half. There are new subdivisions in the pipeline, but no danger of out-pacing demand with 689 new homes (only 196 built) for sale on July 1st in Ada County, this represents less than a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in Ada County now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Don't be fooled by the big websites that show all these pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- very few actually go back to the bank or get sold at trustee sale auctions at local title companies. Right now, there are only a handful of foreclosed homes for sale in the Boise Metro.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

Boise had 561 existing home sales in June (Med $275,000 Avg $327,825 Range $38,000 - 1,875,000 Average days on market 13)

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Our hidden gem has been discovered. Boise is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter. Pending homes still greatly outnumber homes for sale, making the supply of homes a whole 3 weeks. It appears sales have peaked and inventory grew slightly last month- good news for buyers.

This charts shows the count of active and pending home listings on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. This includes all types of single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

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These pie charts show the breakdown of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had only 615 (up 7) total homes for sale on July 1st and 23% of those aren't even built yet.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in price.

Meridian had 244 existing homes sold in June (Med $305,000 Avg $319,718 Range $43,000 - $875,000 Average days on market 15)

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Homes going under contract also slowed slightly in Meridian last month and the active listings grew slightly. The supply/demand balance is still very tight and I would not bet against brisk appreciation in Meridian home values in 2018.

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Meridian had 443 (up from 366) total homes listed for sale on July 1st and existing homes with regular sellers grew by 2% from June. Nearly 40% of the total aren't even built yet.

Eagle, Idaho

Just northwest of Boise between the Boise River and the foothills, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 71 existing homes sold in June (Med $512,000 Avg $567,659 Range $125,000 - 1,400,000 Avg days on market 27)

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Even high-priced Eagle, where the number of buyers in the higher price ranges is naturally lower, still has more homes under contract than available. With super-short supply of homes for sale in Eagle, look for home prices to keep rising quickly.

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Eagle had 238 (up from 232) total homes for sale on July 1st and 85 aren't built yet.

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people- a good number are retirees- are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

Star had 32 existing home sales in June (Med $399,000 Avg $434,205 Range $190,000 - $850,000 Avg days on market 34)

StarSFActPend.gif

What's going on in Star? Pendings have dropped off and this is the first city in the valley with more active homes than under contract. Supply is still only 1.24 months, so look for home prices to continue to climb, but more slowly.

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Star had 98 (up from 78) total homes for sale on July 1st as more regular sellers of existing homes were listed than were sold.

Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes under 20 years old. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county.

Kuna had 59 existing home sales in June (Med $225,000 Avg $265,979 Range $97,200 - 585,000 Avg days on market 12!)

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The market also appears to have peaked in Kuna for the year as homes under contract have levelled off and listings are gaining ground. With still less than a 1-month supply of homes for sale, look for home prices in Kuna to continue climbing.

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Kuna had 164 (up from 140) total homes for sale on July 1st and listings on existing homes have jumped, while new construction has faded a little.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

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Canyon County has seen a large increase in the percentage of regular sellers in June. Very few foreclosed and short sales. New construction is not as strong here as Ada, but listings of to-be-built and under construction have been increasing over the last 3 months.

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New home sales are gaining in Canyon County, but not booming- only 99 sold in June. As of July 1st, only 55 completed and unsold new homes awaited buyers in the whole county.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too.

Nampa had 223 existing home sales in June (Med $203,000 Avg $227,067 Range $80,000 - 593,000 Avg days on market 15)

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While slightly reduced, pending homes still greatly outnumber those actively for sale in Nampa. Just a 3-week supply of homes should push Nampa home prices even higher this summer. Better buy soon!

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Nampa had 330 (up from 292) total homes for sale on July 1st and has a high percentage of existing homes. Builders are not keeping up with growth here, which won't help to slow down price increases.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell is one of the most affordable areas in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 117 existing home sales in June (Med $189,900 Avg $214,648 Range $79,000 - 625,000 Avg days on market 15)

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Again pendings greatly outnumber actives, which remain flat and the resulting supply of homes is less than 3 weeks. Home prices will keep climbing in Caldwell this summer/fall.

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Caldwell had 154 total homes for sale on July 1st, and regular sellers of existing homes have gained about 11% of the pie in June.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage.

Middleton had 39 existing home sales in June (Med $230,000 Avg $264,626 Range $115,000 - $660,000 Avg days on market 16)

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Middleton home sales are booming with pendings outnumbering actives but the lines are getting closer together. Look for home prices to continue upward this year in Middleton.

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Middleton had 85 (up from 79) total homes for sale on July 1st with a shrinking new construction segment, due to the high demand.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker