Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

December 2022 Update-
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 15+ years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my latest quarterly newsletter.


November Listings, Contracts & Closings Still Slowing

The winter doldrums are here and this year it will be especially slow until spring. The number of existing homes available continues to fall as would-be existing home sellers are pulling back while newly constructed homes are languishing on the market for longer. 

Home sales also conitnue to slow. Ada County had the fewest sales in November since the snowpocalypse of 2017 and Boise had the fewest sales in 11 years for any month. January is typically the slowest month for sales.

Even though listings are slowing, today we have the most homes available in 7 years in both Ada & Canyon County. That said- at the current pace of sales, we still only have a 2.2-month supply in the Boise Metro. More inventory is good news for buyers to take advantage of the latest drop in mortgage rates, which are down over a half percent from the recent high.  


Housing Inventory Shortage in Boise Metro

This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme conditions have been in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since peaking in 2008, the number of available listings has been trending lower each year as population grows and homes sell faster.

These are all active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

This year, available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties exploded upward, as higher interest rates priced buyers out of the market and slowed sales. Inventory repsonded by hitting the highest level in 7+ years, but listings have fallen off again.

It is important to note, the actual available housing inventory is much lower than it appears here, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.

Q3 Home Prices Drop in Ada/Canyon County, Idaho

Big changes! For the first time in years, local home prices have been falling since May as higher mortgage rates knock buyers & investors out of the market and discourage movers.  

For the third quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $525,000 was down a shocking 9.3% from the previous quarter and are now flat year over year, wiping out all gains since Q3 of 2021. Inflation & affordability has overcome basic supply and demand!

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gif

The Canyon County median existing home price of $399,900 for Q3 is down only 5.8% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q3 median for existing homes in Canyon County was still up 1.5%.


I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile and seasonal. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. These stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis and estimate of proceeds if you are thinking about selling.


Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward most years in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.

These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County.

Since a couple years before Covid, I think Ada County home sales were constrained by record-low inventory, not because demand slowed. This year, demand has fizzled with higher interest rates and it's showing as a very down year for home sales in Ada County.   


New construction sales have roughly mirrored existing homes in Ada County, weakened a bit by supply chain issues and rising costs. Still not enough building going on to dent the housing shortage.

Home sales in Canyon County had been trending steadily upward with population growth. This year, sales have been falling hard since spring with slight rebounds in August and October.  It appears Canyon County is carrying a little more momentum than Ada, presumably due to more affordable home prices. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017. The Covid blip was a little more extreme here than Ada but did not last long.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.


Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation

Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. Thanks to higher mortgage rates- for the first time in my career- this year NAR's table did not hold true- prices are down in both Ada & Canyon counties while supply has jumped but remains low.

In Ada & Canyon Counties, if no more homes were listed at the current pace of sales, we would run out in just over 2 months. With the winter slow season here, I expect fewer listings ahead until spring selling season.  


Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes. Obviously, we are not building enough homes to increase supply at an affordable price point. Regular sellers of existing homes are facing fewer buyers and longer market times.

Builders have cut back on construction starts as sales were down, but there are many homes in the pipeline in Ada County with over 930 homes under construction or complete. Meanwhile existing home listings exploded to a 7 year high and are now dropping off. New construction now makes up 45% of the pie. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.

Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid-year in favorable weather and between school years. After 5 years of ever-tightening seller's market, then a wildcard pandemic year, now this year higher interest rates caused available existing homes to spike, but it seems they have peaked for the year.

In the new construction segments, I look for danger of builders out-pacing demand. After a few months of slowing demand, Ada County today has 965 new homes available. This represents a 5.3-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 180 closed in November. Builders starting cutting back on new projects months ago (green line), but there's stilll a fair number in the pipeline. The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada last month was $296,990.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen greatly for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures with misleading prices in the Boise area- a default notice gives owners 120 days to cure the default and most owners can easily sell and walk away with cash. Very, very few homes will actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho in the near future.


Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

For November, Boise had 240 existing home sales (Med $450,000 Avg $532,920 Average days on market 38, median 27 days.)

Over the last 15 years, this chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Contract signings continued to slide in October. After a big spike, active listings are dropping off. Boise still has the shortest average marketing time in the valley on sold homes, so inventory will be low when spring hits.

These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 899 total homes for sale on Dec 1st. That is 110 fewer homes for the month. The Boise market is now much more favorable to buyers. Boise inventory based on the pace of sales dropped this month to a 2.7-month supply, still the second highest in the valley behind Kuna.


Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but has surpassed Boise in home prices.

For November, Meridian had 120 existing homes sold (Med $489,900 Avg $544,015 Average days on market 42, median 33 days)

Available listings (blue line) fell again this month in Meridian, while pending contracts (red line) continue to weaken. Inventory based on the pace of sales dropped to 2.1-months supply. Home prices typically don't fall until supply reaches 6 months or more, but higher mortgage rates and inflation have removed many buyers from the market.

Meridian had 595 total homes listed for sale on Dec 1st, down 106 hones for the month as sellers pull back for winter.  New construction now makes up 56% of the pie now with many new homes completed and waiting for buyers. Builders may be willing to deal more now.


Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find the largest, most expensive homes.

For November, Eagle had 35 existing homes sold (Med $712,000 Avg $969,688 Avg days on market 54, median 39 days)

Contract signings have been dropping since May, while spiking new listings have fallen off. Eagle supply levels based on the pace of sales drifted upward to 2.4 months. Still far from supply levels that would cause prices to drop, but other forces are at work- like consumer confidence and affordability.

The number of available homes in Eagle dropped by another 20 in November, mostly existing homes. With 251 total homes for sale on Dec 1st, again 44 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 60 homes completed and 27 under construction.


Star, Idaho

A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

For November, Star had 11 existing homes sold (Med $500,000 Avg $604,981 Avg days on market 42, median 20)

New listings are falling in Star now, while contract signings picked up a little with this latest drop in mortgage rates.  Home prices should stabilize most quickly here this spring with only a 1.4-month supply at the current pace of sales.

Star's total inventory dropped again to 166 homes for sale this month. Existing sellers are pulling back and now 73% of the pie is new construction with 34 under way and 52 completed and available.


Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

For November, Kuna had 24 existing home sales (Med $430,000 Avg $472,329 Avg days on market 41, median 27 days)

The script has flipped this year in Kuna in buyer's favor! Kuna has 19 fewer homes available this month, but demand has dropped off sharply due to higher mortgage rates. Now with a 3.5-month supply of homes, highest in years and great news for buyers looking for more flexible sellers.

Kuna inventory dropped this month to 241 homes available on Dec 1st. Now 70% of the available homes are new construction. With 130 homes finished and 31 under way. Builders should be getting more flexible here.   


Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

Canyon County's total available inventory of existing homes has been falling for 3 months as regular seller of existing homes have pulled back.   

As of Dec 1st, there are 547 total new construction homes on the market in Canyon County with 325 homes completed. The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was $274,990 for a townhouse.

The spike in inventory after interest rates jumped is over and fewer existing homes are being listed. New finished homes were stacking up as well, but have levelled off in November. Notice that construction starts have decreased as builders have pulled back with slowing demand. No danger of overbuilding is a good thing. 


Nampa, Idaho

With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. The housing market has lost some momentum with higher rates. I see in Nampa much longer market times and softer prices. However supply based ont he pace of sales remains extremely low at 1.6 months.

For November, Nampa had 112 existing home sales (Med $348,500 Avg $408,731 Avg days on market 47, median 33 days)

Nampa remains one of the hottest markets in the Treasure Valley.  Available listings are dropping along with contract signings keeping inventory low. Nampa now has the second lowest supply levels in the valley.

Nampa had 617 total homes for sale on Dec 1st, down 70 from the previous month. A large batch of 86 homes are under construction and 157 new never occupied homes await buyers here. Still only 45% of the pie is new construction.


Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo, a budding wine industry and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.

For November, Caldwell had 47 existing home sales (Med $348,500 Avg $408,731 Avg days on market 42, median 30 days)

Contract signings fell off in Caldwell again in November and available listings are also falling keeping inventory down. Home prices could resume climbing in Caldwell with low prices and just a 1.95-month supply today.

Caldwell had 339 total homes for sale on Dec 1st. That is down 27 homes from the previous month.  New construction increased to 48% of the available homes this month with again 122 completed homes awaiting buyers and 30 under way.


Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

For November, Middleton had 27 existing homes sold (Med $525,000 Avg $584,842 Avg days on market 47, median 30 days)

Middleton contract signings have been plummeting since May. Meanwhile, available listings held steady in November. As of Dec 1st, Middleton has a 2.3-month supply at the current pace of sales. Like the rest of the Treasure Valley, these charts have flipped back to more normal conditions this year.

Middleton had 162 total homes for sale on Dec 1st. That's down just 2 homes from the previous month. The new construction segments have grown to 54% of the available pie with 27 under construction and 38 completed homes available.


All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.

Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706