Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

July 2021 Update (Now with Q2 Median Prices)
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 14 years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.


Housing Shortgage Eased in June

Housing demand weakened a bit in June as new listings increased.  Most listings in Ada County get multiple offers and the average sale price was 2.6% HIGHER than asking on homes closed in June, and that is down from 3.3% in May. In Canyon County, the average sale price rose slightly to 2.5% over asking in June. This is the 11th month in a row that the average residential buyer paid over asking in the Boise Metro.

With record low mortgage rates, strong local economy, population growth and under a 2-week supply of homes, prices must rise. However, the price increases will slow for the rest of the year. Recent 3% per month price increases cannot be sustained.

Future buyers should not wait for a downturn. You can lock in for 30 years an interest rate near lifetime lows and it could take years for market conditions to change enough to cause a downturn in home prices. You could miss out on double-digit increases in the meantime.

 


Housing Inventory Shortage in Boise Metro

This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme conditions are in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets.

The number of available listings have been trending lower each year as population grows and homes sell faster. On existing homes sold in June, half the homes sold (listing to offer acceptance) in the first 4 days in the Boise Metro.

These are all active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties had plummeted to levels not seen for many, many years. However, the trend line has again turned upward as new listings gained on sales for the 4th month in a row. Compared to prior years, this upturn in supply is typical for this time of year.

Remarkably, the actual available housing inventory is much lower than it appears here, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.


Q2 Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County, Idaho

Home prices sky-rocketed in the Boise area during the first quarter. Normally first quarter prices rise some, depending on the weather, but this is amazing.

For the second quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $502,000 was up 9.25% from the previous quarter. That is slightly less than the 11.26% gains we saw in the first quarter, but still very strong.

After three amazing quarters in Ada County, the median existing home price is now up 43.5% year over year!

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gif

The Canyon County median existing home price of $385,000 for Q2 is up 13.25% from the previous quarter. That is higher than the 11.48% gained in the first quarter, maybe a sign that Canyon County demand is stronger at this point in the year. Year over year, the Q2 median for Canyon County is up 44.2%. The housing shortage in both counties has begun to soften, but I expect home prices to continue climbing this year.


I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile and seasonal. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. These stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis and estimate of proceeds.


Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys consistently moving upward each year in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.

These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County.

Ada County had a very strong 2020 for home sales, despite covid. Sales have been constrained by low inventory, but were very strong early this year. Year over year, home sales for June were down from last year.


New construction in Ada County slowed post-pandemic, but did rebound some this spring before losing steam again. Not enough building going on to even dent the housing shortage yet.

Canyon County home sales have also been trending steadily upward with population growth and had a very strong year, post-covid and a really strong first half of 2021. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017. The Covid blip was a little more extreme here than Ada.

New Construction closings have increased recently in Canyon County as home prices are more affordable here. Building is great for the economy and easing the housing shortage.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.


Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation

Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. NAR's table holds true- with a 1-week supply, prices are up double-digits annually in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley in 2021. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence.

If no more homes were listed, at the current pace of sales, we would run out in just under 2 weeks. That's up from 1 week in the last couple of months. Strong sales, combined with few sellers is still causing extreme upward pressure on home prices.


Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes. One thing is obvious- we are not building enough homes.

Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year in favorable weather and between school years.

New construction in Ada County has weakened lately and now represents only 31% of the pie. Only a few are listed to-be-built. The rest are under construction or complete- we call it new never occupied. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.

Available existing home listings took a nose-dive last year, but have really taken off lately. Regular sellers of existing homes have been trending lower each year as demand continues to build and not enough homes are listed for sale in Ada County to meet that demand.

In the new construction segments- building has slowed recently in Ada County, due to supply chain problems, rising material costs and lack of available ground. I see zero danger of builders out-pacing demand with only 246 available new homes (159 finished) for sale in Ada County. This represents under a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 258 closed in June. The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada last month was $320,844.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- a default notice only means payments are late and gives owners 120 days to cure the default. Very, very few homes will actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho now.


Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends. Boise is booming and home prices & rents are rising quickly.

For June, Boise had 430 existing home sales (Med $485,000 Avg $538,395 Average days on market 7, median 4 days!)

Over the last 14 years, this charts shows the count of active and pending home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Boise still is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter, and why this chart is so inverted from a normal market. 

These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 317 total homes for sale on July 1st. That is up 76 homes from June, but still 30% fewer available listings than a year ago.


Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in home prices.

For June, Meridian had 229 existing homes sold (Med $527,000 Avg $607,200 Average days on market 7, median 4 days!)

New listings have been lagging in Meridian since covid, but that is changing now. Meridian has 56 more homes available this month, but 124 less than a year before. About a third of available inventory is new-never-occupied. Low inventory will continue to drive home prices higher.

Meridian had 229 total homes listed for sale on July 1st and new construction makes up less of the pie now. Looks like a good time to buy a new home in Meridian with 61 homes complete.


Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find the largest, most expensive homes.

For June, Eagle had 63 existing homes sold (Med $775,000 Avg $952,287 Avg days on market 9, median 3 days!)

Eagle listings had plummeted, while buyer activity was strong. This month, Eagle has 16 more homes available, only the fourth increase since last spring. Now up to .43-month overall supply of homes for sale in Eagle, still a very tight market where prices should rise.

With 97 total homes for sale on July 1st, now only 19 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 10 homes completed and 2 under construction.


Star, Idaho

A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute (30 mins to airport/Boise) and a great name.

For June, Star had 18 existing homes sold (Med $610,000 Avg $681,944 Avg days on market 7, median 4!)

What is going on in Star? I have to keep double-checking my numbers when I see this chart- an extremely wide disparity in the trend lines continues to shrink. Again with the second tightest supply of homes for sale in the valley, I see home prices rising fast here in the near future.

Star had 52 total homes for sale on July 1st. That's up 21 from last month. At least some good news for buyers in the form of more choices.


Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

For June, Kuna had 68 existing home sales (Med $425,000 Avg $442,767 Avg days on market 5, median 4 days!)

Kuna's supply of homes is trending upward. However, inventory is extremely low (only 0.44-month supply) and this will hold down sales too. Prices are most likely to rise here.

Kuna had 92 (up 22 from June) total homes for sale on July 1st and the majority are new construction. Many homes finished- great time to buy new in Kuna. Buyers can expect stiff competition for existing homes here with few available.


Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

Sales are up over last year as the county grows. Housing supply is very low, but builders have lost some momentum even with strong demand. Now 44% of the available homes in Canyon County are new construction. The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was $247,900.

Canyon county new construction was booming until Covid, then weakened for the balance of 2020. Thankfully, homes under construction are again trending upward in Canyon County.  Almost no foreclosed and short sales here. Existing-home sellers are finally trending upward again- good news for buyers- more selection.

As of June 1st, there are 161 total new homes on the market in Canyon County. That is down from the previous month, but still much less than we had a year ago.


Nampa, Idaho

With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too, due to strong demand and low supply.

For June, Nampa had 243 existing home sales (Med $395,000 Avg $421,306 Avg days on market 6, median 4 days!)

One of the strongest markets in the valley, Nampa's pending homes greatly outnumber those actively for sale. Supply did grow over last month. Still with less than a 2-week supply of homes on the marke, I expect Nampa home prices to keep climbing fast this year.

Nampa had 259 total homes for sale on July 1st. The new construction segments of the pie are shrinking as more existing homes are being listed.


Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.

For June, Caldwell had 110 existing home sales (Med $380,000 Avg $414,226 Avg days on market 9, median 4 days!)

Contract signings surged in Caldwell last month, but so did listings. The supply of homes in Caldwell has climbed to a 2-week supply, now the highest in the valley. Home prices should keep climbing in Caldwell.

Caldwell had 117 total homes for sale on July 1st. New construction now makes up over half of the available homes this month.


Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

For June, Middleton had 34 existing homes sold (Med $435,500 Avg $519,548 Avg days on market 8, median 4!)

As of July 1st, Middleton has a mere 0.4-month supply as available listings would run out in less than 2 weeks at the current pace of sales. Expect home prices to continue upward in Middleton.

Middleton had 45 total homes for sale on June 1st with 12 to-be-builts listed.


All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.

Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706