Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

October 2021 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 14 years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.


Housing Inventory Still Growing in September

Housing demand has been trending downward since July and the number of available listings is growing. Still, we have less than a month supply of homes to start October. The biggest news, certainly a turning point in the Boise Metro housing market- the average residential buyer in September paid LESS than asking for the first time in 13 months. In Ada County, the average sale price was 0.77% LOWER than asking on homes closed in September. In Canyon County, the average discount off asking price was 0.38%.  

With low mortgage rates, strong economy, population growth and now just over a 3-week supply, local home prices will likely continue to rise. However, due to affordability acting as a drag and interest rates expected to rise, the increases will likely slow from here until next spring rush.

Future buyers should not wait for a downturn. The rest of 2021 looks promising with a softer market, where you have more choices, more time to find the best home available and some bargaining power to negotiate on price and maybe get some closing costs paid.  


Housing Inventory Shortage in Boise Metro

This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme conditions have been in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since peaking in 2008, the number of available listings have been trending lower each year as population grows and homes sell faster.

These are all active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties had plummeted in 2020, but have climbed over the last 6 months, almost back to pre-covid levels now. Compared to prior years, this upturn in supply is typical for this time of year and will continue until mid winter.

Remarkably, the actual available housing inventory is much lower than it appears here, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.


Q2 Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County, Idaho (Q3 Coming Soon)

Home prices have sky-rocketed in the Boise area. After three amazing quarters in Ada County, the median existing home price is now up 43.5% year over year!

For the second quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $502,000 was up 9.25% from the previous quarter. That is slightly less than the 11.26% gains we saw in the first quarter, but still very strong.

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gif

The Canyon County median existing home price of $385,000 for Q2 is up 13.25% from the previous quarter. That is higher than the 11.48% gained in the first quarter, maybe a sign that Canyon County demand is stronger at this point in the year. Year over year, the Q2 median for Canyon County is up 44.2%. The housing shortage in both counties has begun to soften, but I expect home prices to continue climbing this year.


I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile and seasonal. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. These stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis and estimate of proceeds.


Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward each year in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.

These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County.

Ada County had a very strong 2020 for home sales, despite covid. This year, sales have been constrained by record-low inventory and existing home sales peaked much lower this year in Ada County. Have we reached the peak in home prices? I doubt it with just over a 3-week supply of homes available.  


New construction in Ada County slowed, but did rebound some last month. New home sales for September are about equal to last September. Still not enough building going on to even dent the housing shortage.

Canyon County home sales have also been trending steadily upward with population growth and had a very strong year, post-covid and a really strong 2021. It appears Canyon County has not lost much momentum yet with lower home prices than Ada County. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017. The Covid blip was a little more extreme here than Ada, but did not last long.

New Construction closings have increased this year in Canyon County, but have faded a little in the last 2 months.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.


Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation

Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. NAR's table holds true- with super-low supply, prices are up huge in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence.

If no more homes were listed, at the current pace of sales, we would run out in just over 3 weeks. That's up from 1 week early this year. Strong demand, combined with few sellers is still causing extreme upward pressure on home prices.


Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes. Obviously, we are not building enough homes to increase supply at an affordable price point. Also, we have had too few existing home sellers- it is easy to sell, but difficult to find and buy the next home in such a tight market.

Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year in favorable weather and between school years.

New construction in Ada County has weakened lately and now represents only 31% of the pie. Only a few are listed to-be-built. The rest are under construction or complete- we call it new never occupied. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.

Long term, regular sellers of existing homes have been trending lower each year as not enough homes are listed for sale in Ada County to meet the demand. Existing home listings fell way behind demand last year, but have climbed back to the highest level in 3 years. That trend line should top out soon as there is only a month left of prime selling weather.

In the new construction segments- building has been hampered recently in Ada County, due to supply chain problems, rising material costs and lack of available ground. While supply is rising, I see zero danger of builders out-pacing demand with only 441 available new homes (208 finished) for sale in Ada County. This represents a 1.5-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 292 closed in September. The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada last month was $302,990.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen greatly for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- a default notice only means payments are late and gives owners 120 days to cure the default. Very, very few homes will actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho now.


Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends. Boise is booming and home prices & rents are rising quickly.

For September, Boise had 415 existing home sales (Med $480,000 Avg $535,992 Average days on market 14, median 8 days.)

Over the last 14 years, this charts shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Boise still is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter, and why this chart is so inverted from a normal market. 

These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 619 total homes for sale on Oct 1st. That is up 116 homes for the month and almost double the number available a year ago. Not much new construction going on now.


Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in home prices.

For September, Meridian had 213 existing homes sold (Med $535,000 Avg $570,986 Average days on market 15, median 7 days)

New listings have been lagging in Meridian since covid, but that is changing now. Meridian has 39 more homes available this month- almost equal to a year before. Low inventory will continue to drive home prices higher.

Meridian had 379 total homes listed for sale on Oct 1st and new construction makes up less of the pie now. Looks like a good time to buy a new home in Meridian with 59 homes complete and even more under way.


Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find the largest, most expensive homes.

For September, Eagle had 93 existing homes sold (Med $800,000 Avg $968,917 Avg days on market 17, median 11 days)

Eagle listings had plummeted, while buyer activity was strong. This month, Eagle has 2 less homes available, after six straight month of increases. Now with under a 3-week overall supply of homes for sale in Eagle, still a very tight market where prices should rise.

With 134 total homes for sale on Oct 1st, now 27 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 17 homes completed and 25 under construction.


Star, Idaho

A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute (30 mins to airport/Boise) and a great name.

For September, Star had 31 existing homes sold (Med $542,000 Avg $638,616 Avg days on market 22, median 15)

Star added 11 available homes this month and an extremely wide disparity in the trend lines has finally closed. Returning to today's normal now with the largest supply of homes (1-month) for sale in the valley, I see home prices continuing to rise here, just not as fast.

Star had 126 total homes for sale on Oct 1st. At least some good news for buyers in the form of more choices, mostly new construction. 


Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

For September, Kuna had 62 existing home sales (Med $426,500 Avg $470,771 Avg days on market 14, median 7 days)

Kuna has less homes available again this month after a big jump in July. Inventory is still very low (only 0.68-month supply). Prices are likely to keep rising here.

Kuna had 170 (up 23 from Aug) total homes for sale on Oct 1st and the majority are new construction. Many homes finished- great time to buy new in Kuna. Buyers can expect stiff competition for existing homes here with few available. CBH Homes has many new homes ready for buyers and with incentives to pay your closing costs.


Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

Home sales are still as strong as last year in Canyon County, where housing supply remains very low (under 3-weeks). Now 36% of the available homes in Canyon County are new construction. I know CBH has been busy building hundreds that are waiting for buyers. I've shown 60 of them to one buyer! Both CBH and Hubble are offering incentives to pay your closing costs or add extras like fencing, blinds. Where else can you get closing costs paid by a seller? Nowhere in this market! The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was a townhouse for $256,900.

Canyon county new construction was booming until Covid, then weakened for the balance of 2020. Thankfully, homes under construction are again trending upward in Canyon County. Almost no foreclosed and short sales here. Existing-home listings are really out-pacing demand now- good news for buyers- more selection. I expect this trend line to level off soon with winter coming.

As of Oct 1st, there are 295 total new homes on the market in Canyon County, down again from last month.


Nampa, Idaho

With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too, due to strong demand and low supply.

For September, Nampa had 229 existing home sales (Med $385,900 Avg $428,776 Avg days on market 12, median 6 days)

One of the strongest markets in the valley, Nampa's pending homes still greatly outnumber those actively for sale. New listings are closing the gap now. Still with less than a 3-week supply of homes on the market, I expect Nampa home prices to keep climbing.

Nampa had 428 total homes for sale on Octt 1st. That's up 36 from last month. The new construction segments of the pie are shrinking as more existing homes are being listed.


Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.

For September, Caldwell had 105 existing home sales (Med $366,000 Avg $388,322 Avg days on market 13, median 9 days)

Contract signings fell off in Caldwell again last month and new listings are surging. The trend lines have crossed for the first time in 2 years. The supply of homes in Caldwell has climbed to almost a 1-month supply. Home prices should still keep climbing in Caldwell, just not as fast.

Caldwell had 234 total homes for sale on Oct 1st. That's up 12 from last month.  New construction makes up 42% of the available homes this month.


Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

For September, Middleton had 38 existing homes sold (Med $492,950 Avg $596,404 Avg days on market 18, median 6)

As of Oct 1st, Middleton has a mere 0.34-month supply as available listings would run out in less than 2 weeks at the current pace of sales.  Sales are surging here and listings are not keeping up. Middleton is the only city in the metro where inventory did not grow in August & Spetember. People are moving to the country I guess. Expect home prices to continue upward in Middleton.

Middleton had 84 total homes for sale on Oct 1st. That's up 20 from the previous month. A few more new home starts under way.


All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.

Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706