Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

January 2022 Update- Now with Q4 Median Prices
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 14 years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.


Inventory Plummeted in December

Happy New Year! After peaking in October and falling in November, the number of available listings accelerated downward in December. Not surprising with the snow and holidays, also not great for house hunters.

With still-low mortgage rates, strong economy, population growth and now only a 2-week supply of homes for sale, local home prices will rise further this spring.

Future buyers should not wait for a downturn in prices (could be years). This winter offers a relatively softer market, where you have more choices and time to find the best home available and some bargaining power to maybe get some closing costs paid or a price reduction.


Housing Inventory Shortage in Boise Metro

This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme conditions have become in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since peaking in 2008, the number of available listings has been trending lower each year as population grows and homes sell faster.

These are all active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties are approaching the lowest levels we'll see this winter. Depending on the weather, the number of new listings should start climbing soon.

Remarkably, the actual available housing inventory is much lower than it appears here, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.


Q3 Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County, Idaho (Q4 Coming Soon)

Home prices have sky-rocketed nationwide and SW Idaho is no exception. After three amazing quarters in Ada County, the median existing home price slipped a bit during Q4. Despite this seasonal softening, the median existing home ended the year up 24%.

For the fourth quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $514,900 was down 1.9% from the previous quarter. That was the biggest 4th quarter drop in 4 years. Was it weather or inflation affecting sales?

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gif

The Canyon County median existing home price of $385,000 for Q4 is down 2.3% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q4 median for Canyon County ended up 26.2%.


I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile and seasonal. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. These stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis and estimate of proceeds if you are thinking about selling.


Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward each year in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley. Sales were down in 2021, but remain fairly strong this winter. A harbinger of the year to come?

These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County.

Ada County had a very strong 2020 for home sales, despite covid. For 2021, I think sales were constrained by record-low inventory. See supply information below.  


New construction sales have climbed recently in Ada County as builders close on contracts from a few months ago. Still not enough building going on to even dent the housing shortage.

Canyon County home sales have also been trending steadily upward with population growth and had a very strong year, post-covid and a surprisingly strong 2021. It appears Canyon County has not lost much momentum this winter with lower home prices than Ada County. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017. The Covid blip was a little more extreme here than Ada but did not last long.

New Construction has been erratic, but overall has been fairly strong in Canyon County last year.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.


Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation

Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. NAR's table holds true- with super-low supply, prices are up huge in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence.

If no more homes were listed, at the current pace of sales, we would run out in just 2 weeks. That's up from 1 week at this same time last year. Strong demand, combined with few sellers is still causing extreme upward pressure on home prices. I expect the housing market will be tight again in 2022 and prices will rise further in the spring/summer.


Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes. Obviously, we are not building enough homes to increase supply at an affordable price point. Also, we have had too few existing home sellers because it is easy to sell, but difficult to find and buy the next home in such a tight market.

Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year in favorable weather and between school years.

New construction in Ada County has weakened lately, but with the seasonal drop in existng home listings now makes up 49% of the pie. Only a few are listed to-be-built. The rest are under construction or complete- we call it new never occupied. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.

Long term, regular sellers of existing homes had been trending lower each year as not enough homes are listed for sale in Ada County to meet the demand. Existing home listings recently peaked at the highest level in 4 years and then dropped as buyer demand remained strong for the time of year.

In the new construction segments- building has been hampered recently in Ada County, due to supply chain problems, rising material costs and lack of available ground. I see zero danger of builders out-pacing demand with only 334 available new homes (115 finished) for sale in Ada County. This represents a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 344 closed in December. The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada last month was a townhouse for $334,990.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen greatly for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- a default notice only means payments are late and gives owners 120 days to cure the default. Very, very few homes will actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho now. Most can sell and walk with cash.


Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends. Boise is booming and home prices & rents are rising quickly.

For December, Boise had 388 existing home sales (Med $478,450 Avg $542,834 Average days on market 25, median 16 days.)

Over the last 14 years, this chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Both listings and pendings have dropped in Boise recently. Is it just seasonal or are people choosing to buy farther out?  

These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had only 270 total homes for sale on Jan 1st. That is down 163 homes from the previous month as the weather & holidays discouraged new listings. Remarkably, the market is a little more favorable to buyers this year. Last January, Boise had only 160 available homes and the tightest supply (1-week) I've ever seen.


Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but has surpassed Boise in home prices.

For December, Meridian had 168 existing homes sold (Med $519,950 Avg $576,238 Average days on market 27, median 18 days)

New listings have fallen off hard in Meridian with 80 fewer homes available this month, while pending contracts remain fairly strong and stable. Low inventory will continue to drive home prices higher in Meridian.

Meridian had only 153 total homes listed for sale on Jan 1st and new construction makes up more of the pie now. Maybe a good time to buy a new home in Meridian with 25 homes complete and even more under way.


Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find the largest, most expensive homes.

For December, Eagle had 52 existing homes sold (Med $831,500 Avg $1,066,134 Avg days on market 25, median 15 days)

A reaction to high home prices or just seasonal? Eagle listings and pendings have both dropped recently, but my chart remains inverted from normal. Home prices should continue to rise in Eagle, just not as fast this year.

With only 89 total homes for sale on Jan 1st, now 68 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 25 homes completed and 30 under construction.


Star, Idaho

A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

For December, Star had 23 existing homes sold (Med $540,000 Avg $570,090 Avg days on market 22, median 4)

A surge of new listings got snatched up quickly in Star, which has 35 fewer available homes this month and sales remain stable. An extremely wide disparity in the trend lines had closed, but has opened up again, I see home prices continuing to rise here, just not as fast.

Star had only 60 total homes for sale on Jan 1st. Only 10 existing homes! Now 83% of the pie is new construction with many completed and under construction available.


Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

For December, Kuna had 54 existing home sales (Med $427,450 Avg $495,520 Avg days on market 33, median 18 days)

Kuna has 40 fewer homes available this month. Demand remains historically strong, ostensibly due to Kuna's lower home prices.

Kuna had 107 total homes for sale on Jan 1st and the vast majority are new construction. Many homes finished adn even more under way- great time to buy new in Kuna. CBH Homes has many new homes ready for buyers and with incentives to pay your closing costs.   


Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

Home sales are still as strong as last year in Canyon County, but inventory is not so low this year. There are 150% more homes available to start this year (510 vs 202 last year) Still, 510 is only a 2-week supply. Prices will jump in the spring again. 

As of Jan 1st, there are 302 total new homes on the market in Canyon County, down slightly from last month. Now 59% of the available homes in Canyon County are new construction, as existing homes listings slowed this winter. I know Idaho's largest builder, CBH has been busy building hundreds. The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was a townhouse for $279,900.

Existing home listings in Canyon county have plummetted recently, while new construction has been gaining ground with many homes completed and more under way. 


Nampa, Idaho

With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here, due to strong demand and low supply.

For December, Nampa had 174 existing home sales (Med $383,250 Avg $413,388 Avg days on market 27, median 19 days)

Nampa is one of the hottest markets in the area. Sales have been slowing since June albeit from a record pace. Listings had been gaining ground but have fallen back recently. Nampa's pending homes still greatly outnumber those actively for sale. I expect Nampa home prices to keep climbing.

Nampa had 293 total homes for sale on Jan 1st. That's down 61 from last month. The new construction segments of the pie are growing as fewer existing homes are being listed.


Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.

For December, Caldwell had 95 existing home sales (Med $370,000 Avg $398,600 Avg days on market 26, median 14 days)

Contract signings fell slightly in Caldwell last month, but listings have dropped even farther. Home prices should still keep climbing in Caldwell, just not as fast.

Caldwell had 130 total homes for sale on Jan 1st. That's down 49 from the previous month.  New construction makes up 55% of the available homes this month.


Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

For December, Middleton had 28 existing homes sold (Med $625,000 Avg $671,237 Avg days on market 38, median 29)

Middleton is red hot now! I guess more people are moving to the country. As of Jan 1st, Middleton still has less than 2 weeks supply at the current pace of sales, the tighest in the valley.  Sales are surging here and now listings have fallen off. Expect home prices to continue upward in Middleton.

Middleton had 43 total homes for sale on Jan 1st. A few more new home starts under way.


All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.

Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706