Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

November 2018 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here's what you need to know about buying or selling homes in the Boise Idaho area. I track here over a decade of trends and indicators in the Boise metro housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

Novembrrr! Judging by the freezing temps, winter is here and so is BARGAIN SEASON for buyers & investors. Let's avoid cabin fever and look at some homes.

Ada County housing markets have softened slightly with the usual seasonal slow-down in sales. Canyon County markets have remained stronger into the fall with Nampa & Middleton having the tightest supply readings again this month.

Housing Inventory Update in Boise Metro

The long view of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. The trend has been toward fewer available listings each year as population grows and homes sell fast. On existing homes sold in October, average days on the market were just 23 in Ada and 21 in Canyon.

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These are active listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Actual inventory is much lower than it appears because hundreds of these are to-be-built or under construction- see my pie charts below. This extremely low number of homes for sale is almost a guarantee that Boise area home prices will continue to rise faster than normal until listings make substantial gains on sales.

Q3 2018 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

Very strong third quarter!

For the third quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $303,950 is up 6.23% from the previous quarter. That's a large increase for a third quarter (market usually softens) and evidence of the tight housing supply. Year over year in Ada County the median is up 18.3%. Unsustainable you say? Yes, but supply remains extremely low, so don't look for prices to turn downward anytime soon.

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Canyon County's median existing home price of $211,250 for Q3 is up 5.1% from the previous quarter. Also very strong for a third quarter. Year over year, the Q3 median is up 20.7% in Canyon County!

Is this a bubble? No. Just compare our median home prices in Q2 to other metros around the country and the national median. Even higher-priced metros are seeing double-digit appreciation. This is not a bubble, nor is it the vacuum it used to be.

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Is the top near? Should you wait to buy or invest? The low housing supply problem is not a local phenomenon. It is widespread in the US and, combined with Boise's growing population and strong economy will not be resolved quickly. Home prices will rise further in SW Idaho. It's not too late to ride the wave. Don't wait for interest rates to rise- call me today to buy a home or investment.

I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile. I also ignore meaningless monthly prices. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property, as some segments perform better or worse. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales


Home sales follow the typical four-seasonal trend, but the peaks and valleys are consistently moving upward in these charts of homes sold per month, clearly reflecting a growing population.

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Homes sales have been trending solidly upward since 2008 in Ada County with strong population growth in the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna. Given the still low interest rates, strong local economy, low relative home prices and low cost of living we enjoy in SW Idaho, I don't see this trend changing yet.

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Canyon County home sales have also been trending upward for a decade with population growth. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip in my chart was the snowpocalypse of 2017- the worst winter in 30 years.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, new construction, short sales and repossessed homes.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at supply levels.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation


Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. Once again, NAR's table proves out- with supply near one month, prices are up double-digits annually in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley at least into 2019. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence.

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Can we build our way out of the shortage? Yes, but developing new subdivisions for homes to be built is a long process and a slow-down in demand is more likely to solve the supply shortage than over-building. Also, prices on new construction remain substantially higher than existing homes.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

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The make-up of homes for sale changes constantly. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year during optimum selling and moving weather. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

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Regular sellers of existing homes are still trending downward as demand continues to build and not enough homes are listed in Ada County. This year's flatter bell curve makes me optimistic that 2019 will be strong also.

All new construction categories are rising (gaining on softening demand). I see no danger of builders out-pacing demand or even putting a dent in low supply, with 964 new homes (359 built) for sale on Nov 1st in Ada County. This represents a 1.4-month supply at the current pace of sales. It could be argued that the pace of sales has been held down by the shortage of homes, but not this time of year.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in Ada County now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Don't be fooled by the big websites that show all these pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- very few actually get sold at trustee sale auctions and almost none are going back to the banks. Right now, there are only a handful of foreclosed homes for sale in the Boise Metro.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

Boise had 461 (up 73!)existing home sales in Oct (Med $279,900 Avg $314,706 Average days on market 20)

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Boise has been one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter, driving home prices up. Home sales have now peaked for the year, but pendings did outnumber homes for sale for much of the year as the housing shortage intensified. This will continue into next year.

This charts shows the count of active and pending home listings on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. This includes all types of single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

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These pie charts show the breakdown of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 806 (down 8) total homes for sale on Nov 1st. New construction segments gained 5 percent last month, now 33 percent of the pie.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in price.

Meridian had 161 existing homes sold in Oct (Med $285,500 Avg $319,743 Average days on market 27)

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As is usual for the seasons, pendings slowed again in Meridian last month and the active listings grew. Even still, the supply of homes at 1.4 months is extremely tight and I would not bet against brisk appreciation in Meridian's future.

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Meridian had 570 (up 16) total homes listed for sale on Nov 1st and now 61 percent is new construction. Major growth here with many homes under construction or newly built.

Eagle, Idaho

Just northwest of Boise between the Boise River and the foothills, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 64 existing homes sold in Oct (Med $452,500 Avg $511,076 Avg days on market 31)

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It's been such a strong year, even high-priced Eagle, where the number of buyers is naturally lower, had more homes under contract than available for a time. With only a 1.4-month supply of homes for sale in Eagle, don't look for a downturn in prices other than the usual winter softening.

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Eagle had 258 (up 20) total homes for sale on Nov 1st and now 53 percent of the available homes are new construction. Eagle is growing fast!

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

Star had 30 existing home sales in Oct (Med $36,400 Avg $356,577 Avg days on market 21)

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Looks like the market has really cooled off in Star! Pendings have dropped off and there's a whole 2-month supply of homes for sale (highest in the metro). Could be a buying opportunity.

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Star had 138 (up 6) total homes for sale on Nov 1st and more than half is new construction.

Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes under 20 years old. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county.

Kuna had 56 (up 21!) existing home sales in Oct (Med $246,100 Avg $305,952 Avg days on market 25)

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Kuna has seen the strongest demand ever this year and homes under contract outnumbered active listings for most of the year. Supply is finally rising, but with a 1.4-month supply of homes for sale, home prices in Kuna must rise.

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Kuna had 193 (down 4) total homes for sale on Nov 1st and an amazing 76 percent is new construction. Not many existing homes to choose from for buyers.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

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Wow. Regular sellers have levelled off much lower this year!

Canyon County has a lot less new construction than Ada. This should keep the pressure on existing homes to appreciate more- also why I'm currently liking this area for investors looking to hold for appreciation. As this boom continues, Canyon should see more growth. Almost no foreclosed and short sales.

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New home sales are gaining in Canyon County, but not booming- only 75 sold in Oct. As of Nov 1st, only 111 were in progress and 88 finished and unsold new homes awaited buyers in the whole county. That's not enough to relieve any of the pressure on inventory. The cheapest new home sold was $177,685 in Canyon County.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too, due to strong demand and low supply.

Nampa had 210 (up 36!) existing home sales in Oct (Med $208,245 Avg $226,997 Avg days on market 18!)

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Showing strength late in the year, pending homes outnumbered those actively for sale in Nampa, until now. While it may help buyers slightly, with only a month supply of homes on the market I expect Nampa's still affordable home prices to climb even higher.

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Nampa had 388 (up 74) total homes for sale on Nov 1st and now new construction segments have grown to 40 percent of the pie.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell is one of the most affordable areas in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 89 existing home sales in Oct (Med $194,900 Avg $207,199 Avg days on market 22)

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The market has softened a bit, but pendings did outnumber actives for much of the year in Caldwell and the supply of homes is now up to 1.8 months. Home prices should keep climbing in Caldwell.

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Caldwell had 243 (up 67!) total homes for sale on Oct 1st, and new construction makes up 54 percent of the pie this month with a bunch of new homes completed last month.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage.

Middleton had 37 existing home sales in Oct (Med $249,900 Avg $279,093 Avg days on market 27)

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Middleton's home sales have been booming this year with pendings still outnumbering actives. Middleton has the tightest housing supply in the valley again this month. Look for home prices to continue upward in Middleton.

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Middleton had 72 (down 2) total homes for sale on Nov 1st with 34 percent of those in the new construction segments.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker