Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe Realty
911 Balsam Boise ID 83706
Happy Independence Day! Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 15 years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my latest quarterly newsletter.
Those two big jumps in mortgage interest rates have taken the heat out of Boise area housing markets! Contract signings fell about 10% in May and another 10% in June. Meanwhile available listings jumped over 100%, adding1600 homes in Ada/Canyon over the last 2 months. Total supply based on the pace of sales has grown from 2 weeks earlier this year to 6 weeks in the Boise Metro- still very low. Boise & Eagle now have the highest inventory levels in the valley, nearing 2 months. Nampa has the lowest supply, near 1 month.
The median days on market (half sold in less time) has grown from 4 days in May to 6 days in both Ada & Canyon Counties.
Still-historically low mortgage rates and a persistent shortage of available housing should cause local home prices to keep rising, but not like we've been.
These are all active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.
Available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties have exploded upward in the last 4 months, reaching a 6-year high in Ada and 7-year high in Canyon. The buyer's agent side of me is rejoicing that my buyers may have some bargaining power again. I built my career on finding or making bargains and there have been few lately.
It is important to note, the actual available housing inventory is much lower than it appears here, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.
Home prices have sky-rocketed nationwide and SW Idaho is no exception. After slipping a bit in the previous quarter, Ada & Canyon county existing home prices resumed climbing during the first quarter.
For the first quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $535,000 is up 3.9% from the previous quarter and are now up 16.4% year over year. At this rate, we are on pace for another year of double-digit gains, but I expect rising interest rates, inflation & affordability to slow the housing markets in the second half of 2022.
The Canyon County median existing home price of $405,000 for Q1 is up a strong 5.2% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q1 median for existing homes in Canyon County is now up 19.1%.
Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward most years in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.
These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County.
Since a couple years before Covid, I think sales were constrained by record-low inventory, not because demand slowed. This year, demand has slowed and it's looking like a down year for home sales in 2022.
Sales started rather strong this year in Canyon County but fell back in May/June. Home sales here had been trending steadily upward with population growth. It appears Canyon County is carrying a little more momentum than Ada, presumably due to more affordable home prices. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017. The Covid blip was a little more extreme here than Ada but did not last long.
New Construction sales have turned downward noticeably in Canyon County.
Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.
Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. NAR's table holds true- with super-low supply, prices are up huge in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley. A very good reason to invest in Boise real estate with confidence in the short term.
In Ada & Canyon Counties, if no more homes were listed at the current pace of sales, we would run out in just 6 weeks. It's been 12 years since supply was high enough for prices to fall and we're still a good way from that. I expected the housing market to remain tight for the rest of 2022, but the recent jumps in interest rates have me doubting it now. A good winter bargain season is possible this year!
Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.
The make-up of homes for sale tells us much about current market trends for both existing and newly-constructed homes. Obviously, we are not building enough homes to increase supply at an affordable price point. Also, we have had too few existing home sellers because it is easy to sell, but more difficult to acquire the next home in such a competitive market. That persistent inventory shortage appears to be growing quickly with rising interest rates.
New construction in Ada County has increased this year but sales have dropped off, meanwhile existing home listings have grown. New construction now makes up 35% of the pie. Only a few are listed to-be-built. The rest, over 700 homes, are under construction or complete- we call it new never occupied. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.
Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid-year in favorable weather and between school years. After 5 years of ever-tightening seller's market, then a wildcard pandemic year, now higher interest rates have pushed existing homes into a very steep upward trajectory. Great news for buyers- more choices, more bargaining power and more time to shop!
In the new construction segments, I look for danger of builders out-pacing demand. After a couple months of slowing demand, Ada County today has 815 new homes available with 703 under construction or complete. This represents a 3-month supply at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 271 closed in June. The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada last month was $353,990.
Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen greatly for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures with misleading prices in the Boise area- a default notice gives owners 120 days to cure the default and most owners can easily sell and walk away with cash. Very, very few homes will actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho in the near future.
The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends. Boise is booming and home prices & rents are rising quickly.
For June, Boise had 349 existing home sales (Med $520,000 Avg $608,937 Average days on market 10, median 6 days.)
Over the last 15 years, this chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.
June ended with the most active listings in Boise in 5 years! Great news for buyers. Active listings again outnumber pendings. This is a return to normal from a long-term perspective, but it sure happened fast! Higher prices and rates are certainly hurting affordability.
These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 1038 total homes for sale on July 1st. That is 373 more homes for the month, after adding 254 homes in May. The Boise market is now much more favorable to buyers. Now Boise has just over a 1.9-month supply, the highest level in 5 years.
Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but has surpassed Boise in home prices.
For June, Meridian had 158 existing homes sold (Med $571,449 Avg $671,596 Average days on market 12, median 5 days)
Available listings (blue line) jumped by 221 homes this month in Meridian, while pending contracts (red line) dropped off more. Inventory jumped from a 3-week supply to nearly 1.5 months. Home prices typically don't fall until supply reaches 6 months or more. We have a way to go.
Meridian had 567 total homes listed for sale on July 1st and new construction makes up 40% of the pie now. Builders may be nervous and willing to deal more with a big batch of homes under way and completed.
With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find the largest, most expensive homes.
For June, Eagle had 57 existing homes sold (Med $855,000 Avg $1,014,884 Avg days on market 14, median 9 days)
Oh how the market can change! The lines crossed in May for the first time in 2 years in my Eagle chart and then kept going. Contract signings dropped off in May & June, while new listings are spiking upward. Home price increases are slowing down. Eagle supply levels have jumped to 1.75 months. Still far from levels that would cause prices to drop.
The number of available homes in Eagle jumped over 50% in May, adding 76 homes and another 56 in June. With 276 total homes for sale on July 1st, now 39 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 44 homes completed and 49 under construction.
A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.
For June, Star had 26 existing homes sold (Med $667,500 Avg $687,819 Avg days on market 11, median 5)
New listings are spiking in Star as higher interest rates barely slowed demand here, with 69 additional available homes this month. Sales remain strong. I see home prices continuing to rise here, not going flat with only a 1.2-month supply.
Star went from 70 total homes for sale on May 1st to to 189 this month. Much of the increase was new construction, but existing homes are inncreasing also. Now 65% of the pie is new construction with 51 under way and 26 completed.
Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.
For June, Kuna had 43 existing home sales (Med $460,000 Avg $529,181 Avg days on market 15, median 7 days)
Market times have doubled in the last couple months- good for buyers to avoid bidding wars. Kuna has 86 more homes available this month! Demand has dropped off sharply, due to higher mortgage rates. Still only a 1.4-month supply of homes, so prices could climb more.
Kuna added 33 available homes in May and 86 more in June! Now with 237 homes on July 1st, 63% are new construction. Many homes finished and under way. Builders should be getting more flexible here.
Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.
Canyon County's available inventory of existing homes jumped by 120, or about 25%, during June to 650 homes total. It's been a few years since that many homes were for sale. Great news for buyers trying to get in ahead of further rising interest rates.
As of July 1st, there are 563 total new construction homes on the market in Canyon County. That's up 180+ from the month before! The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was $299,990.
The slowdown in sales is really showing now in rising inventory. Available existing home listings in Canyon county are in a steep upward trajectory and new finished homes are stacking up as well.
With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here, due to strong demand and low supply.
For June, Nampa had 179 existing home sales (Med $412,450 Avg $444,218 Avg days on market 11, median 6 days)
Nampa is one of the hottest markets in the area and the slowdown is just starting to show here. Available listings jumped by 200 homes in June, while pending contracts have only begun to slow. Still Nampa today has the lowest supply in the valley, currently 1.08 months.
Nampa had 411 total homes for sale on June 1st and 613 on July 1st. That is a big jump. A large batch of homes are under construction and 62 new never occupied homes await buyers here. Half of the pie is new construction now.
Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.
For June, Caldwell had 83 existing home sales (Med $385,000 Avg $410,094 Avg days on market 9, median 4 days)
Contract signings levelled off in Caldwell and available listings jumped by 121 homes in June. Home prices could keep climbing in Caldwell with low prices and just over a 1.5-month supply today.
Caldwell had 338 total homes for sale on July 1st. That is up 121 homes from the previous month. New construction makes up 50% of the available homes this month with many completed homes awaiting buyers and almost as many under way.
Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.
For June, Middleton had 32 existing homes sold (Med $510,000 Avg $631,521 Avg days on market 14, median 10 days)
Middleton was red hot but sales lost momentum in May/June as contract signings fell off and listings jumped. As of July 1st, Middleton has a 1.3-month supply at the current pace of sales. The trend lines have crossed back into normal territory.
Middleton had 182 total homes for sale on July 1st. That's up 59 homes from the previous month. The new construction segments now make up 47% of the pie.
All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.
Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.