Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

September 2018 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here's what you need to know about buying or selling homes in the Boise Idaho area. I track here the last 10 years of trends and indicators in the Boise metro housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

September Happy fall! Home sales have peaked for the year and inventory is growing in the Boise area, but supply levels remain extremely low. Home prices should still be on the rise, just not as fast.

It's still a great time to sell a home near Boise, but buyers will see more choices and slightly more bargaining power this fall.

Housing Inventory Growing in Boise Metro

This history of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. The most recent trend has been toward fewer available listings each year as population grows and homes sell so fast. Average days on the market were just 18 (Ada) and 19 (Canyon) days on existing homes sold in August- that's up from July.

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These are active listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Actual inventory is much lower than it appears because hundreds of these are to-be-built or under construction- see my pie charts below. This extremely low number of homes for sale is almost a guarantee that Boise area home prices will continue to rise faster than normal until listings make substantial gains on sales. There is good news for buyers- the number of listings has been growing for 4 months now.

Q2 2018 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

Amazing appreciation rates!

For the second quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $286,118 is up 4.56% from the previous quarter. While that's great, it's a lot less than the increases seen in the previous 3 second quarters. Don't forget the first quarter was super hot. Year to date in Ada County the median is up almost 16 percent. Unsustainable you say? Yes, but supply remains extremely low.

Is this a bubble? No. Just compare our median home prices to other metros around the country and the national median. This is not a bubble, nor is it the vacuum it used to be.

Is the top near? Should you wait to buy or invest? The low housing supply problem is not a local phenomenon. It is widespread in the US and, combined with Boise's growing population and strong economy will not be resolved quickly. Home prices will rise further in SW Idaho. It's not too late to ride the wave. Don't wait for interest rates to rise- call me today to buy a home or investment.

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Canyon County's median existing home price of $201,000 for Q2 is up 8.64% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q2 median is up 16.86% in Canyon County!

I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile. I also ignore meaningless monthly prices. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property, as some segments perform better or worse. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales


Home sales follow the typical four-seasonal trend, but the peaks and valleys are consistently moving upward in these charts of homes sold per month, clearly reflecting a growing population.

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Homes sales have been in a very solid upward trend since 2008 in Ada County, including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna. Given the still low interest rates, strong local economy, low relative home prices and low cost of living we enjoy in SW Idaho, I don't see this trend changing yet.

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Canyon County home sales have also been trending consistently upward over the last few years. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise. That big dip was the snowpocalypse of 2017- the worst winter in 30 years.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, new construction, short sales and repossessed homes.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at supply levels.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation


Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. Once again, NAR's table proves out- with supply at one month, prices are up double-digits annually in both Ada & Canyon counties. This is why I expect strong home price appreciation to continue in the Treasure Valley at least into 2019. This is also why you should invest in Boise real estate with confidence for the near future.

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Can we build our way out of the shortage? Yes, but developing new subdivisions for homes to be built is a long process. Also, prices on new construction remain substantially higher than existing; for August the average new home sold for $69,000 more than existing homes in Ada County and $61,000 more in Canyon County.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory levels of homes for sale.

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The make-up of homes for sale changes constantly. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year during optimum selling and moving weather. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

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Regular sellers of existing homes are still trending downward as demand continues to build from population growth and not enough homes are listed in Ada County.

All new construction categories are rising after a minor summer dip. I see no danger of builders out-pacing demand, or putting a dent in low supply, with only 808 new homes (267 built) for sale on Sept 1st in Ada County, this represents a 1.1-month supply at the current pace of sales.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in Ada County now. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Don't be fooled by the big websites that show all these pre-foreclosures in the Boise area- very few actually go back to the bank or get sold at trustee sale auctions at local title companies. Right now, there are only a handful of foreclosed homes for sale in the Boise Metro.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

Boise had 514 existing home sales in August (Med $285,750 Avg $329,779 Average days on market 17)

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Boise is one of the fastest growing cities in the nation and housing inventory has never been tighter, driving home prices up. Pending homes have peaked for the year but still outnumber homes for sale. At least growing inventory is good news for my buyers.

This charts shows the count of active and pending home listings on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. This includes all types of single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

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These pie charts show the breakdown of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 755 (up 50) total homes for sale on Sept 1st and again only 28 percent of the pie was new construction. It seems most of the building is going on farther out, where there's more room for expansion.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in price.

Meridian had 217 existing homes sold in August (Med $305,000 Avg $327,094 Average days on market 15)

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Homes going under contract slowed again in Meridian last month and the active listings grew. Even still, the supply of homes is extremely tight and I would not bet against brisk appreciation in Meridian home values for the rest of 2018.

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Meridian had 514 (up 60) total homes listed for sale on Sept 1st and still more than half is new construction. Major growth here.

Eagle, Idaho

Just northwest of Boise between the Boise River and the foothills, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 83 existing homes sold in August (Med $460,000 Avg $546,790 Avg days on market 34)

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It's been such a strong year, even high-priced Eagle, where the number of buyers is naturally lower, has had more homes under contract than available until now. With super-short supply of homes for sale in Eagle, look for home prices to keep rising quickly.

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Eagle had 236 (down 5) total homes for sale on Sept 1st and half the available homes are new construction. Eagle is growing fast!

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

Star had 24 existing home sales in August (Med $335,950 Avg $404,012 Avg days on market 15)

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Looks like the market has cooled off a bit in Star this summer. Pendings have dropped off and there's a whole 1.3-month supply of homes for sale (highest in the metro), so look for home prices to continue to climb a little more slowly.

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Star had 117 (up 21) total homes for sale on Sept 1st and more than half is new construction.

Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes under 20 years old. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county.

Kuna had 44 existing home sales in August (Med $227,000 Avg $263,002 Avg days on market 13!)

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Kuna has seen the strongest demand ever this year and homes under contract still outnumber active listings. With still less than a 1-month supply of homes for sale, look for home prices in Kuna to continue climbing.

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Kuna had 169 (up 21) total homes for sale on Sept 1st and an amazing 73 percent is new construction. Might be a good place to invest for the future.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

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Canyon County has a much lower percentage of new construction than Ada and a lower supply of existing homes. This should keep the pressure on existing homes to appreciate more- also why I'm currently liking this area for investors looking to hold for appreciation. As this boom continues, Canyon should see more growth. Almost no foreclosed and short sales.

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New home sales are gaining in Canyon County, but not booming- only 86 sold in August. As of Sept 1st, only 86 were in progress and 61 finished and unsold new homes awaited buyers in the whole county. That's not enough to relieve any of the pressure on inventory.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here too, due to strong demand and low supply.

Nampa had 241 existing home sales in August (Med $215,000 Avg $231,516 Avg days on market 19)

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Pending homes remain strong and still greatly outnumber those actively for sale in Nampa. Less than a 3-week supply of homes should push Nampa's still affordable home prices even higher this fall.

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Nampa had 314 (up 30) total homes for sale on Sept 1st and low percentage of new construction. Builders are not keeping up with growth here, and won't help to slow down price increases.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell is one of the most affordable areas in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 120 existing home sales in August (Med $192,450 Avg $213,384 Avg days on market 16)

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Still pendings greatly outnumber actives, and the resulting supply of homes is under 1 month. Home prices will keep climbing in Caldwell this fall.

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Caldwell had 176 (up 4) total homes for sale on Sept 1st, and new construction makes up 60 percent of it this month with a bunch of new to-be-built listings.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage.

Middleton had 35 existing home sales in August (Med $255,000 Avg $287,115 Avg days on market 31)

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Middleton's booming home sales have cooled and rebounded this summer with pending still outnumbering active. Look for home prices to continue upward this fall in Middleton.

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Middleton had 72 (down 5) total homes for sale on Sept 1st with only 29 percent of those in the new construction segment.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker