Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

Here is what you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 15+ years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my latest quarterly newsletter.

January Momentum Faded in February 

 After peaking in November, mortgage rates dropped for 11 weeks straight, fueling a 20% jump in contract signings in January. I almost got excited. Then February was disappointing, with pending contracts only rising 5% because mortgage rates rose 4 weeks straight on stubbornly high inflation numbers and the FED's promise to keep raising rates.  

Supply levels in SW Idaho remain extremely low and got even tighter in Feb. Local home prices could easily turn upward again this spring as buyers compete for too few listings. Much depends on mortgage rates. The second quarter usually delivers the biggest jump of the year in home prices.  

Housing Inventory Shortage in Boise Metro

This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme conditions have been in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since peaking in 2008, the number of available listings has been trending lower each year as population grows and homes sell faster.

These are all active (available) listings in Ada & Canyon County, Idaho on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction.

Last year, available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties exploded upward as higher interest rates priced buyers out of the market and slowed sales. This spike receded over the winter thanks to interest rates falling back.

It is important to note, the actual available housing inventory is much lower than it appears here, because many of the available homes are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.

Q4 Home Prices Slide Further in Ada/Canyon 

The long run-up in Idaho home prices has finally broken. We all knew it couldn't last. After tripling over the last decade, local home prices turned downward as higher mortgage rates priced many buyers & investors out of the market.  

For the fourth quarter, the Ada County median existing home price of $499,900 was down 4.8% from the previous quarter and are now down 2.9% year over year. Local home prices do normally soften in the 4th and 1st quarters. 

The Canyon County median existing home price of $368,495 for Q4 is down 7.8% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q4 median for existing homes in Canyon County was down 4.3%.

I use only existing homes to gauge housing prices, as new construction is much more volatile and seasonal. I also ignore meaningless monthly readings. Quarterlies are a much more reliable sample size and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. These stats have limited relevance to an individual property. Ask me for a free market analysis and estimate of proceeds if you are thinking about selling.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

Sales are a trailing indicator on the market- the actual marketing and sale happened under conditions at least a month prior to the sale. Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward over time in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.

These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows New Construction in Ada County.

For the last 4-5 years, I think Ada County home sales were constrained by record-low inventory, not because demand slowed. Then came the unexpected Covid boom in 2021. In 2022 demand fizzled with higher interest rates. Thanks to mortgage rates peaking in November, we just had the slowest winter in 7 years and we've added thousands of homes to the stock since then. 

Sales have turned upward again. The coming spring rush could be hindered by interest rates. 

New construction sales have roughly mirrored existing homes in Ada County, but remained fairly level though the winter. Still not enough building going on to dent the housing shortage.

Home sales in Canyon County had been trending steadily upward for a decade with strong population growth. Sales fell hard last year when mortgage rates started rising, but have turned upward again. Surprisingly, new home sales in Canyon County are up over the winter! It appears Canyon County new construction is carrying a little more momentum than Ada, presumably due to more affordable home prices. That big dip in the middle was the snowpocalypse of 2017.

Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.

Inventory	1-2 months	3-4 months	5-6 months	7-8 months	9-10 months
Price Variance	double-digit appreciation	single-digit appreciation	stable	singe-digit depreciation	double-digit depreciation

Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. Thanks to higher mortgage rates- for the first time in my career- NAR's table did not hold true in 2022- prices are down in both Ada & Canyon counties while supply remains historically low. We should be seeing double digit appreciation.

In Ada & Canyon Counties, if no more homes were listed at the current pace of sales, we would run out in just over 1 month.  Home prices should be climbing and I think they will this spring- if interest rates will cooperate. (They have risen 4 weeks in a row now)

I just added major events to my chart that affect the markets, like the great recession, the home buyer tax credits, Covid and spiking interest rates. All the effects on supply are visible in this chart.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale.

This is the current overview of all homes for sale in Ada County.

Still no short sales or foreclosures. New homes are selling. There are 136 fewer new homes in the pipeline in Ada County this month with today 626 homes under construction or complete. New construction now makes up 50% of available homes. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.

Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid-year in favorable weather. My chart shows 5 years of ever-tightening seller's market, then a wildcard pandemic year, then interest rates doubled in 2022 causing available existing homes to spike and then recede.

After a few months of slowing in the new construction segments, Ada County today has 626 new homes available, down from 758 the prior month. This represents a 2.3-month absorption rate at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 276 closed in February. Builders are still cutting back on new projects (green line) and are selling a bunch of the completed homes (purple line). 

The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada County last month was $294,990 for a townhouse. All Ada county new homes median sold price for Feb was $596,950. Average was $690,064.

Foreclosures and short sales are very rare in SW Idaho now. Home prices in the Boise area are still up 40% from the start of the pandemic, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell. Do not be fooled by websites showing pre-foreclosures with misleading prices in the Boise area- a default notice gives owners 120 days to cure the default and most owners can easily sell and walk away with cash. Very, very few homes will actually get foreclosed in SW Idaho in the near future.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

For February, Boise had 218 existing home sales (Med $447,500 Avg $497,042 Average days on market 55)

Over the last 15 years, this chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.

Contract signings have finally turned upward with lower prices and mortgage rates! And after a big spike, active listings have dropped over the winter setting us up for another tight supply and competitive spring rush that could push prices higher.

These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 496 total homes for sale on March 1st. That is 47 fewer homes for the month as new listings are down and contract signings are increasing. Boise inventory based on the pace of sales dropped this month to a 1.3-month supply- very low. New construction now makes up only 32% of the pie as some of the new homes are selling.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but has surpassed Boise in home prices.

For February, Meridian had 94 existing homes sold (Med $465,500 Avg $515,949 Average days on market 49)

Available listings (blue line) fell again this month in Meridian, while pending contracts (red line) moved slightly upward. Inventory based on the pace of sales dropped below a 1-month supply. Home prices could start rising soon in Meridian with such a tight market.

Meridian had 324 total homes listed for sale on Mar 1st, down 66 homes for the month as sellers are waiting for spring and more have gone pending.  New construction again makes up 63% of the pie with many new homes completed and waiting for buyers. Builders should be flexible here.

Eagle, Idaho

With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find many of the largest, most expensive homes.

For February, Eagle had 27 existing homes sold (Med $750,000 Avg $837,322 Avg days on market 75)

After dropping since last May, contract signings turned upward in January and Feb with lower mortgage rates. Based on the pace of sales, Eagle supply dropped to 1.67-months supply. 

The number of available homes in Eagle held steady in Feb with 165 total homes for sale on Mar 1st, now 41 percent of the available homes are new construction, including 37 homes completed and 15 under construction.

Star, Idaho

A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

For February, Star had 12 existing homes sold (Med $573,450 Avg $646,316 Avg days on market 44)

Listings and contract signings both picked up a little in Jan & Feb as interest rates dipped.  Home prices could jump this spring with only a 1.25-month supply at the current pace of sales.

Star's total inventory rose by 5 to 169 homes for sale this month. Now 72% of the pie in Eagle is new construction with 46 under way and 47 completed and available.

Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.

For February, Kuna had 29 existing home sales (Med $368,000 Avg $486,524 Avg days on market 54)

Kuna has 44 fewer homes available this month and contract signings jumped with lower mortgage rates. Now with less than a 1-month supply of homes, very tight inventory and few choices for buyers.

Kuna listings dropped by 44 homes this month to 109 homes available on Mar 1st. Now 58% of the available homes are new construction. Builders are moving inventory with only 37 homes finished and 18 under way, both down substantially from the previous month.   

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

Canyon County's total available inventory of existing homes has been falling hard over the winter. Builders have also been moving some new homes since the first of the year.  

As of Mar 1st, there are 355 total new construction homes on the market in Canyon County with 169 homes completed and 110 under way. The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was $276,990 for a townhouse. All new homes sold in Feb- median $475,990. Average $552,317.

The spike in inventory after interest rates jumped is over and fewer existing homes are being listed. A number of new finished homes are selling with lower mortgage rates. Notice that construction starts may have bottomed out for the season. 

Nampa, Idaho

With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. The housing market here really crumbled with higher rates, but I think the worst is over.

For February, Nampa had 109 existing homes sold (Med $365,000 Avg $394,280 Avg days on market 68)

Nampa remains one of the hottest markets in the Treasure Valley.  Available listings are dropping as sales start to pick up. Nampa now has the tightest supply levels in the valley with just over a 3-week supply based on the pace of sales.

Nampa had 340 total homes for sale on Mar 1st, down 63 from the previous month as a few more are going under contract. A large batch of 69 homes are under construction and 72 new never occupied homes await buyers here. Now 51% of the pie is new construction.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell, home of the world famous rodeo, a budding wine industry and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.

For February, Caldwell had 56 existing home sales (Med $323,000 Avg $352,166 Avg days on market 56)

Contract signings picked up in Caldwell for Jan & Feb and available listings are still falling keeping inventory down. Home prices could jump this spring in Caldwell with less than a 1-month supply today.

Caldwell had 172 total homes for sale on Mar 1st. That is down 33 homes from the previous month thanks to more going pending.  New construction decreased to 49% of the available homes this month with 46 completed homes awaiting buyers and just 19 under way.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage make the home prices seem higher.

For February, Middleton had 20 existing homes sold (Med $404,950 Avg $582,267 Avg days on market 62)

Middleton contract signings have been plummeting since May, but finally broke the trend in Jan & Feb. Meanwhile, available listings are dropping.  Middleton now has a 2.25-month supply at the current pace of sales, the only city in the metro where supply grew last month.

Middleton had 128 total homes for sale on Mar 1st. That's down just 11 homes from the previous month. The new construction segments now represent 60% of the available pie with 17 under construction and 42 completed homes available.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, acreage, land, lots, property. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.