Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro Area
April- Q1 2019 Report (Under Construction)


Happy Sring 2019! After a slow start in Jan/Feb, the local housing markets really took off in March. Our persistent low supply problem continues and home prices could rise double-digit again this year. The biggest part of those gains will come during the second quarter, as home sales in Idaho typically peak each year in June/July.

If you are considering a purchase this year- home or investment, there's still time to get ahead of these rising prices. Another great reason to buy now is low interest rates, now near the lowest in a year and not that far from record lows. Ask me for good local lenders to get yourself prequalified.

Boise Metro Home Prices- Q1 of 2019
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. I use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.

AdaCanMedPriceQ1.gif

Ada County's median existing home price for Q1 rose 3.275% from the previous quarter to $299,500. Year over year, the Ada County median existing home price is up 9.45% from Q1 of 2018. That's like 3 years of normal appreciation in one.

Canyon County's median existing home price for Q1 rose 2.87% from the previous quarter to $2015,000. Year over year, the median in Canyon County is up 16.2% when compared to Q1 of 2018. These annual increases are worth like 6 regular years of appreciation- don't miss out on this year!


Ada County Discounts Still Shrinking
This chart shows all existing home sales through the end of 2018 in Ada county. The discount is the difference between the average list and average sale price. This does not include any buyer's closing costs paid by the seller.



Home prices are up, but the discount off asking that sellers accept continues to get smaller. A very clear sign that the Boise Metro housing shortage is intensifying as population grows.

Another interesting statistic from 2018: The average market time on 9075 sold residential listings in Ada county was 23 days. HALF of them sold in just 7 days! Could not be more of seller's market.

Boise Idaho Housing Supply Shortage
This is why home prices are rising so fast in SW Idaho. Growing demand and not enough sellers has held supply levels below a month (can't go much lower) for most of this year.

AdaCanSFSupply4.gif


This charts covers all single-family homes, including new construction, actively for sale or under contract on the first day of each month in Ada & Canyon counties. Given these conditions, Boise area home prices must climb.

This is not a local trend, but a widespread boom in demand and shortage in housing. Many cities across the country, especially around California, have experienced strong increases in home prices as people migrate, the economy improves and the pent-up demand for housing is absorbed, as this from NAR's Q3 Medians illustrates:

NARMediansQ3.GIF

After two very strong years, Boise area home prices have surpassed the national median for the first time, but remain well below the West. I see room for further increases. Even the most expensive metro in the US; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara with a median home price of 1.3 million increased 11.6% year over year. No sign of a local bubble near Boise that could burst yet.

Idaho Still Among Fastest Growing States
Half of the fastest growing states are in the western US, according to the Census Bureau. Texas & Florida topped the list for most new residents, but Nevada and Idaho populations grew 2.1% between July 2017 and July 2018. Other western states- Utah, Arizona & Washington all grew by 1.5% during that period.

With our low housing supply in the Boise area, it will take awhile for all these new residents to be absorbed. Don't look for a slow-down in housing markets anytime soon. Rents and prices must rise in these market conditions.

Source: Realtor Magazine 12/20/18 "The States That Grew The Most This Year"

I have more charts! See My Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
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Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker