Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro AreaQ2 2022 Update
Home Prices Surged Again in Boise Metro.
As usual for second quarters in SW Idaho, home prices jumped with peak demand during the spring rush. The market did start slowing in May/June with sharply higher interest rates, weakening sales and rising inventory, but this trend has not shown up yet in closed prices. I expect the third quarter to be substantially weaker.
Boise Metro Home Prices- Q2 2022
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. Monthly numbers are too small and erratic. I also use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.
The Ada County median existing home price for Q2 2022 was up a strong 8.2% from the previous quarter to $579,000. Last year, the median jumped by 20% in the first two quarters, so this year's 12.1% increase to date represents a major slow-down in price appreciation.
Year over year, the Ada County median existing home price is now up 15.3%.
The Canyon County median existing home price for Q2 2022 rose only 4.8% from the previous quarter to $424,500. That's much lower than Ada County, probably due to worsening affordability conditions for buyers in lower price ranges.
Year over year, the median in Canyon County is now up 19.1%. With lower prices than Ada County, there is room for prices to continue rising here.
Boise Median Home Price Comparison
This table helps you compare Boise Metro existing-home median prices and trends with national, regional and most relevant major metros covered by NAR in their quarterly report. Please note that NAR blends prices within metro areas and those numbers may not exactly match our local stats.
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Boise Metro home prices have been climbing fast for years. We surpassed the national median home price in 2018, but remain far below the more relevant western region. Also note that Boise Metro home prices are well below our nearest neighbors large enough to make NAR's list; Salt Lake City & Reno.
The year over year column shows the change from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022. Boise has been near the top for fastest appreciating metros for the last few years. Now 71 major metros have experienced appreciation rates equal to or above Boise over the last year. So much for fears of a local bubble!Housing Inventory ShortagesSupply is expressed in months inventory would last at the current pace of sales as indicated by pending contracts- next month's sales. Locally, our supply levels are a fraction of normal and this is virtually a guarantee that prices will continue to climb until supply grows substantially.
In a typical year for the Boise Metro, supply bottoms out in summer with high demand and peaks in winter with low demand. Ignoring the covid year, this is a normal annual trend in the Boise Metro. This year, supply started climbing early, because the pace of sales (as indicated by pending contracts) has fallen off by 20% in May/June, causing inventory to jump to the highest levels in 6 years. Even with the increase, we will need many more listings for inventory levels to cause a downturn in prices. If you are one of those future buyers hoping for a downturn, don't wait- interest rates are likely to rise further with currrent inflation problems. Supply will have to reach near 6 months before prices will go flat or down and that could take some time. Today, we have just over a 6-week supply of homes that should continue to drive home prices higher.
Discounts Return In Boise Housing Markets
Back in 2008-2010, the average discount off asking reached almost 5% as you can see by the bump in the green line as prices were falling. In the first half of 2021 the market was so tight and bidding wars so prevalent that the average discount became a premium as high as almost 4% over asking
This year the spring rush lost its momentum early with rising interest rates. The average home buyer paid LESS than asking in June, reversing the trend for this year. Note the green line rising above zero again, indicating a discount. The average sale price in Ada County was 0.56% BELOW asking in June. Canyon County numbers are similar.
If this trend continues, we might be able to get buyer's closing costs paid by sellers again, like we did for many years!
I have many more charts in my Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
I am always happy to answer real estate questions; recommend a good lender, provide a free CMA or neighborhood history, an investment analysis, should-I-refi-or-remodel questions, first-timer education, etc.