Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro Area
January- Q4 2018 Report


Happy 2019! Should be an interesting year. Boise area real estate markets softened slightly over the winter, but are poised for another year of double-digit home price appreciation.

If you are considering a purchase this year- home or investment, now is the time. The spring rush will cause prices to jump big in the second quarter. Maybe in the first, as homes are already selling fast in early January.

Boise Metro Home Prices- Q4 of 2018
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. I use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.

AdaCanMedQ4.gif

Ada County's median existing home price for Q4 dropped 4.6% from the previous quarter to $290,000. This is typical for prices to soften in the wintry fourth quarter near Boise. I see it as a buying opportunity for early spring. Year over year, the Ada County median existing home price is up 16%, even after the 4th quarter drop. Since supply has been dropping for 51 months in a row, I do not expect price increases to slow much this year- if at all. My prediction for 2019 home price increases is firmly in the double-digit range, assuming mortgage rates will climb slightly and affect affordability.

Canyon County's median existing home price for Q4 fell 1% from the previous quarter to $209,000. Year over year, the median in Canyon County is still up 18.75% when compared to Q4 of 2017. These annual increases are worth like 6 regular years of appreciation- don't miss out on this year!


Ada County Discounts Still Shrinking
This chart shows all existing home sales through the end of 2018 in Ada county. The discount is the difference between the average list and average sale price. This does not include any buyer's closing costs paid by the seller.

AdaDiscounts2018YearEnd.gif

Home prices are up, but the discount off asking that sellers accept continues to get smaller. A very clear sign that the Boise Metro housing shortage is intensifying as population grows.

Another interesting statistic from 2018: The average market time on 9075 sold residential listings in Ada county was 23 days. HALF of them sold in just 7 days! Could not be more of seller's market.

Boise Idaho Housing Supply Shortage
This is why home prices are rising so fast in SW Idaho. Growing demand and not enough sellers has held supply levels below a month (can't go much lower) for most of this year.

AdaCanSFSupply.gif


This charts covers all single-family homes, including new construction, actively for sale or under contract on the first day of each month in Ada & Canyon counties. Given these conditions, Boise area home prices must climb.

This is not a local trend, but a widespread boom in demand and shortage in housing. Many cities across the country, especially around California, have experienced strong increases in home prices as people migrate, the economy improves and the pent-up demand for housing is absorbed, as this from NAR's Q3 Medians illustrates:

NARMediansQ3.GIF

After two very strong years, Boise area home prices have surpassed the national median for the first time, but remain well below the West. I see room for further increases. Even the most expensive metro in the US; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara with a median home price of 1.3 million increased 11.6% year over year. No sign of a local bubble near Boise that could burst yet.

Idaho Still Among Fastest Growing States
Half of the fastest growing states are in the western US, according to the Census Bureau. Texas & Florida topped the list for most new residents, but Nevada and Idaho populations grew 2.1% between July 2017 and July 2018. Other western states- Utah, Arizona & Washington all grew by 1.5% during that period.

With our low housing supply in the Boise area, it will take awhile for all these new residents to be absorbed. Don't look for a slow-down in housing markets anytime soon. Rents and prices must rise in these market conditions.

Source: Realtor Magazine 12/20/18 "The States That Grew The Most This Year"

I have more charts! See My Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
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Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker