Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro Area
Q1 2023 Update

Home Prices Continued to Slide in Boise Metro.
Affordability is still overpowering normal supply & demand forces in SW Idaho. We still have very low inventory, but higher interest rates, payments and income needed to qualify are keeping sales and prices down.

Boise Metro Home Prices- Q1 2023
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. Monthly numbers are too small and erratic. I also use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gifHigher mortgage rates have made affordability the major factor that will dictate the direction of SW Idaho home prices going forward. In a typical year local home prices soften in the first and fourth quarters and jump in the second and third quarters. IF local home prices rise this year, it will be most likely during Q2.

The Ada County median existing home price for Q1 of 2023 fell 5% from the previous quarter to $475,000.

The Ada County median existing home price is now down 11.2%, year over year, and is now down 18% from the peak reached in Q2 of last year, just 3 quarters ago. That said, the median home price is still 32% higher than when Covid started in 2020, just 3 years ago.

The Canyon County median existing home price for Q1 2023 dropped only 2.3% from the previous quarter to $360,000. 

Year over year, the median existing home in Canyon County is now down 11.1%. From the peak in Q2 of last year, the median is down 15.3%, but still up 34.8% from 3 years ago. 

Boise Home Price Comparison- Looking Back at Q4
Like a rear-view mirror, this table helps you compare Boise Metro existing-home median prices and trends with national, regional and most relevant major metros covered by NAR in their quarterly report. Please note that NAR blends prices within metro areas and those numbers may not match our local stats.
Copyright 2022 National Association of REALTORS®. All rights reserved.

Boise Metro home prices had been climbing fast, but quickly turned negative in 2022 with rising mortgage rates- this data is starting to show it now. We surpassed the national median home price in 2018, but remain far below the more relevant western region. Also note that Boise Metro home prices are well below our nearest neighbors large enough to make NAR's list; Salt Lake City & Reno. 

The year over year column shows the change from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022. Boise has been near the top for fastest appreciating metros for the last few years. Now we are behind only San Fran for largest year over year drop. 

Housing Inventory Shortages
Supply is expressed in months inventory would last at the current pace of sales as indicated by pending contracts- next month's sales. Locally, our supply levels have been a fraction of normal and this is a strong indicator that prices must climb until supply grows substantially.

In a typical year for the Boise Metro, supply bottoms out in summer with high demand and peaks in winter with low demand. Ignoring the great recession, the first-timer tax credits and the covid year, this is a normal annual trend in the Boise Metro. In 2022 interest rates started jumping in Feb, slowing the pace of sales with each increase and causing inventory to spike to the highest levels in 6+ years. Inventory has since shrunk back to just over a 1-month supply- very tight. 

Discounts vs. Prices in Boise Housing Markets

Back in 2008-2010, the average discount off asking reached almost 5% as you can see by the bump in the green line as prices were falling. In the first half of 2021 the market was so tight and bidding wars so prevalent that the average discount became negative; a premium as high as almost 4% over asking, driving prices up further. 

In 2022 jumping interest rates caused the discounts to start growing again and prices started falling in Ada County. 

So far this year, the discount has see-sawed back and forth with fluctuating mortgage rates. During April the average home buyer paid about 2% LESS than asking. I was expecting the discount to shrink this spring, due to tighter inventory and higher demand, but we may not see premiums again this year. Canyon County discount was 1.3% in April, indicating a stronger market.

These discounts/premiums are based on price only and do not include any other seller concessions. It is possible to get buyer's closing costs paid by sellers again, like we did for many years.

I have many more charts in my Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
I am always happy to answer real estate questions; recommend a good lender, provide a free CMA or neighborhood history, an investment analysis, should-I-refi-or-remodel questions, first-timer education, etc.
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