Quarterly Real Estate Update
Boise ID Metro Area
Q4 2022 Update

Home Prices Continue to Slide in Boise Metro.
Higher mortgage rates and affordability conditions have overcome basic supply & demand this year.

Boise Metro Home Prices- Q4 2022
Quarterly Median Existing Home Prices are the most reliable indicator of housing market price trends. Monthly numbers are too small and erratic. I also use only existing homes in my chart, as the ebb & flow of new construction can skew the numbers.

AdaCanMedPriceQ419.gifWe all knew this unprecedented run-up in home prices could not last. The doubling of mortgage rates has made affordability the major factor that will dictate the direction of SW Idaho home prices in 2023. In a typical year home prices soften in the first and fourth quarters and jump in the second and third quarters. 

The Ada County median existing home price for Q4 2022 fell 4.8% from the previous quarter to $499,900. After dropping 9.3% during Q3, this represents a slowdown in the rate of decline, probably due to shrinking inventory over the winter.

Compared to Q4 of 2021, the Ada County median existing home price is now down 2.9% year over year.

The Canyon County median existing home price for Q4 2022 dropped 7.8% from the previous quarter to $368,495. 

Year over year, the median existing home in Canyon County is now down 4.3%.

Boise Home Price Comparison- Looking Back at Q3
Like a rear-view mirror, this table helps you compare Boise Metro existing-home median prices and trends with national, regional and most relevant major metros covered by NAR in their quarterly report. Please note that NAR blends prices within metro areas and those numbers may not exactly match our local stats.
Copyright 2022 National Association of REALTORS®. All rights reserved.

Boise Metro home prices have been climbing fast for years, until now. We surpassed the national median home price in 2018, but remain far below the more relevant western region. Also note that Boise Metro home prices are well below our nearest neighbors large enough to make NAR's list; Salt Lake City & Reno. 

The year over year column shows the change from Q3 2021 to Q3 2022. Boise has been near the top for fastest appreciating metros for the last few years. Now prices are flat and second from the bottom on this list behind only San Fran. 

Q4 update will be mid Feb. 

Housing Inventory Shortages
Supply is expressed in months inventory would last at the current pace of sales as indicated by pending contracts- next month's sales. Locally, our supply levels have been a fraction of normal and this is a strong indicator that prices will continue to climb until supply grows substantially.

In a typical year for the Boise Metro, supply bottoms out in summer with high demand and peaks in winter with low demand. Ignoring the covid year and the first-timer tax credits in 2009-2010, this is a normal annual trend in the Boise Metro. This year, interest rates started jumping in Feb, slowing the pace of sales with each increase and causing inventory to spike to the highest levels in 6+ years. Inventory has levelled off around a 2 month supply- still historically low, yet prices are falling due to affordability conditions. 

Discounts vs. Prices in Boise Housing Markets

Back in 2008-2010, the average discount off asking reached almost 5% as you can see by the bump in the green line as prices were falling. In the first half of 2021 the market was so tight and bidding wars so prevalent that the average discount became a premium as high as almost 4% over asking, driving prices up. 

In 2022 jumping interest rates caused prices to peak in May as the discounts started growing and prices started falling in Ada County. 

For December, the average home buyer paid about 2.2% LESS than asking. Note the green line has turned downward again, indicating a shrinking discount due to tighter inventory. Canyon County numbers are similar.

These discounts/premiums are based on price only and do not include any other seller concessions. It is possible to get buyer's closing costs paid by sellers again, like we did for many years.

I have many more charts in my Market Monitor for more information on Boise Metro housing markets and trends, updated monthly.
I am always happy to answer real estate questions; recommend a good lender, provide a free CMA or neighborhood history, an investment analysis, should-I-refi-or-remodel questions, first-timer education, etc.
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