Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

Sept 2017 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


This is what you need to know about buying or selling homes in the Boise Idaho area. I track here the last 10 years of trends and indicators in the Boise housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

Happy September! Even the summer heat only cooled things down slightly in real estate this year. Active listings climbed slightly and pendings unexpectedly were also up in August. It's still very much a seller's market, but buyers have a few more choices and usually gain more bargaining power going into fall.

It's still a great time to buy with low rates and home prices on the rise- did you hear Boise was rated the #1 strongest economy in the nation by Forbes? Expect prices to continue climbing. Ssk me about financing options and help with down payment & closing costs.

Limited Homes For Sale in Boise Metro

Looking at a 10-year history of homes on the market really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro in terms of numbers of homes for sale. Homes in both Ada & Canyon counties are selling fast, with average days on the market of just 23 and 25 days, respectively, on existing homes sold in August.

AdaCanSFActive.gif

These are active listings in Ada & Canyon County on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction (several hundred are to-be-built or under construction).

So many trends in this chart! The free-fall period where sellers badly outnumbered buyers and home prices fell over 40% until the bottom in Jan 2011. Then the Recovery from Jan 2011 to early 2016, when median existing home prices regained the previous high set in 2007. We are now in a growth phase with no sign of slowing.

This extremely low number of homes actively for sale, is nothing short of a guarantee that prices will rise. The outlook for 2017 home price appreciation in or near Boise is very strong. Double-digit annual gains are very possible, because sales are not slowing as much this year as the previous 3 years.

Q2 2017 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

Next update in October. The Boise area housing markets have been red-hot this year! For the second quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $247,000 rose a very strong 9.3% from the previous quarter, even higher than I predicted. The Q2 median is now up 7.1% year over year.

AdaCanMedPrice.gif

Canyon County's median existing home price of $159,000 for Q2 is up 8.18% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q2 median is up a very strong 11% in Canyon County. Can't resist reminding renters- that's equivalent to $17,000 in added equity in one year on the median priced home that you missed out on. Contact me to buy your first home and stop falling behind.

I use only existing homes to gauge prices, because new construction is much more volatile and subjective. I also ignore monthly numbers- quarterlies are much more reliable and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property, as some segments performed better or worse. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales


AdaSoldByMo.gif
Are people still moving here? Judging by the new high set each year in this chart- Yes. Homes sales have been building in a very solid upward trend since 2008 in Ada County, including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna. Given the still low interest rates, strong local economy, growing population, low home prices and low cost of living we enjoy in SW Idaho, I don't see this trend changing yet.

CanSoldsByMo.gif

Canyon County home sales appear to have peaked for the year at a new high, showing continued strength from population growth. Sales have been building a similar solid upward trend over the last few years. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, new construction, short sales and repossessed homes.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of demand. By dividing the number of homes available by the number of homes under contract, we get a supply in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at supply levels.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation



Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. With barely a month's supply of homes for sale, prices should be jumping double digits. Why aren't they? Pent-up demand. Low supply has been constraining sales. This is why I expect the market to be very strong again in the Treasure Valley at least into 2018.

AdaCanSFSupply.gif

Can we build our way out of the shortage? Yes, but developing new subdivisions for homes to be built does not happen overnight. Also, prices on new construction are still substantially higher than existing; Average sale prices in June on new construction were $78,000 higher than existing homes in Ada County and $50,000 higher in Canyon County.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory levels of homes for sale.

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The make-up of homes for sale changes constantly. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

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The new construction segment of the Ada county housing market continues to build momentum, and builders are falling behind demand: the New-Never Occupied segment is dropping off the pace. There are new subdivisions in the pipeline, but there's no danger of out-pacing demand soon. With 753 (same as last month) new homes under contract on Sept 1st, this equates to just a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales on 760 new homes currently listed for sale and available in Ada County.

Foreclosures and short sales are now only a tiny slice of the housing market pie in Ada County. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local trends.

Boise had 550 existing home sales in August, Med $239,100- Avg $273,426- Average days on market 20. Total homes for sale 958 on Sept 1st.

BoiseSFActPend.gif
It seems our hidden gem has been discovered. As you can see, inventory cannot get any tighter in Boise. Almost as many pending homes as for sale. This is why you should be convinced home prices are headed higher in Boise.

This charts shows the count on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. Boise home prices should continue to rise faster than normal. So will rents for investors. Money is still cheap. Think about it. Ask me for properties that will appreciate over time and deliver tax shelter and equity build-up and maybe some cash.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow. Being just west of Boise, the housing markets are very similar.

Meridian had 245 existing homes sold in Aug. Med $255,000- Avg $277,251- Average days on market 27. Total homes for sale 544 on Sept 1st.

MeridianSFActPend.gif
The lines are still crossed here. Just a few more homes for sale in Meridian this month, and a few less pending.

As a result, Meridian's housing supply continues to scrape along the bottom with less than a month;s supply now (0.96). The market will be strong again into 2018 with home prices rising quickly in Meridian.

Eagle, Idaho

Just northwest of Boise between the Boise River and the foothills, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 93 existing homes sold in Aug. Med $412,500- Avg $438,453- Avg days on market 40. Total homes for sale 324 on Sept 1st.

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The number of buyers in the higher price ranges is naturally lower, so the lines in my chart have not crossed for Eagle, but they are closer together than ever.

The number of homes for sale in Eagle is now highest in 3 years, but pendings have kept up as well. The resulting supply of homes for sale in Eagle remains very low, driving prices higher.

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley. Many people relocating to Idaho are choosing this quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

Star had 27 existing home sales in Aug. Med $343,000- Avg $352,957- Avg days on market 16. Total homes for sale 120 on Sept 1st.

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Pending homes are way up in Star this year as new construction is strong here! The number of homes on the market in Star is certainly on the low end of the scale for the last decade.

As a result of the strong demand in Star, housing supply is extremely low here and prices should continue to climb.

Kuna, Idaho

Located just 10 miles south of Meridian, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute times in Canyon county.

Kuna had 62 existing home sales in Aug. Med $209.450- Avg $245,357- Avg days on market 18. Total homes for sale 176 on Sept 1st.

KunaSFActPend.gif

Another very strong spring in Kuna. Again, demand is out-pacing listings. Look for home prices in Kuna to continue climbing in the near future.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

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Canyon County is fully recovered from the downturn- evidenced by the little slivers of foreclosed and short sales.

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New constructions levels remain well below where they should be. New home sales are up in Canyon County, but not booming- only 80 sold in August. As of Sept 1st, only 63 completed new homes awaited buyers in the whole county.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here.

Nampa had 261 existing home sales in Aug, Med $170,000- Avg $193,477- Avg days on market 21. Total homes for sale 521 on Sept 1st.

NampaSFActPend.gif
Pending homes no longer outnumber those actively for sale in Nampa as the summer heat has slowed sales slightly and a few more listings came on the market. Sales momentum in Nampa continues to build. Housing supply in Nampa can't get much lower. This will push prices even higher.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell is one of the more affordable areas in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 103 existing home sales in Aug. Med $162,112- Avg $180,743- Avg days on market 21. Total homes for sale 243 on Sept 1st.

CaldwellSFActPend.gif
Same story as the rest of the valley- very few homes for sale in Caldwell, compared to demand. Pending homes showing strong demand. The resulting supply reading is on the extreme low end of the scale and prices should keep climbing.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage.

Middleton had 26 existing home sales in Aug. Med $214,950- Avg $242,442- Avg days on market 46. Total homes for sale 113 on Sept 1st.

MiddletonSFActPend.gif
Middleton home sales are booming, judging by the extreme jump in pending homes this spring. Housing supply is as low as it can be in Middleton, so look for prices to jump.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, horse property, luxury and executive homes. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker