Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

November 2017 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


Here's what you need to know about buying or selling homes in the Boise Idaho area. I track here the last 10 years of trends and indicators in the Boise housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my quarterly newsletter.

Here comes winter! Both sales and listings numbers in the Boise area are down for October, following the expected seasonal trends. Housing supply is still very low, so if life happens and you need to sell over the winter, prices will be only slightly softer. Depending on the weather of course.

This is what I call bargain season for buyers. Nasty cold weather and holiday distractions work in your favor as a buyer. Your bargaining power increases, improving our chances of getting a lower price and/or closing costs paid by seller. Mortgage rates are still low (under 4%) and home prices are expected to continue climbing. Ask me about financing options and help with down payment & closing costs.

Limited Homes For Sale in Boise Metro

This 10-year history of available homes for sale really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro. The post-recession trend has been toward fewer available listings each year as population grows. This year's plateau is even lower, again. Homes in both Ada & Canyon counties are selling fast, with average days on the market of just 27 and 32 days on existing homes sold in October.

AdaCanSFActive.gif

These are active listings in Ada & Canyon County on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction (several hundred are to-be-built or under construction- see my pie charts below).

This chart begins a year after the June 2007 real estate peak, during the free-fall period where sellers badly outnumbered buyers and home prices fell until Jan 2011. It was early 2016, over 9 years later, when median existing home prices regained the previous high.

This extremely low number of homes actively for sale, is nothing short of a guarantee that home prices will continue to rise.

Q3 2017 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

The Boise area housing markets have been so strong this year! For the third quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $256,950 rose 4% from the previous quarter. A sign of strength for next year... this was the largest third quarter increase in five years, The Q3 median is now up 11.2% year over year in Ada County!

AdaCanMedPrice.gif

Canyon County's median existing home price of $175,000 for Q3 is up 1.74% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q2 median is up 9.44% in Canyon County. That's a little less than last quarter.

I use only existing homes to gauge prices, as new construction is much more volatile. I also ignore monthly numbers- quarterlies are much more reliable and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property, as some segments performed better or worse. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales


Sales are starting to drop off as expected with the cooler weather, but it's been another very strong year for home sales in the Treasure Valley.

AdaSoldByMo.gif
Homes sales have been in a very solid upward trend since 2008 in Ada County, including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna. Given the still low interest rates, strong local economy, low home prices and low cost of living we enjoy in SW Idaho, I don't see this trend changing yet.

CanSoldsByMo.gif

Canyon County home sales are showing even more improvement this year and a similarly solid upward trend over the last few years. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, new construction, short sales and repossessed homes.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at supply levels.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation


Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. Once again, NAR's table proves out- with barely a month's supply of homes for sale, prices are up 11% year over year in Ada County. This is why I expect home price appreciation to be very strong again in the Treasure Valley in 2018.

AdaCanSFSupply.gif
Can we build our way out of the shortage? Yes, but developing new subdivisions for homes to be built does not happen overnight. Also, prices on new construction remain substantially higher than existing; for October the average new home sold for $101,000 more than existing homes in Ada County and $74,000 more in Canyon County.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory levels of homes for sale.

AdaBySellerPie.gif
The make-up of homes for sale changes constantly. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

AdaBySellerLine.gif

The new construction segment of the Ada county housing market continues to strengthen, and not many homes get finished unsold- hard to find finished models to look at. There are new subdivisions in the pipeline, but there's no danger of out-pacing demand yet. With 868 new homes for sale on Nov 1st in Ada County, this is just over a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales, based on 661 under contract.

Foreclosures and short sales are now very rare in Ada County. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.

Boise had 464 existing home sales in Oct (Med $235,000 Avg $269,147 Range $40,000 - 1,200,000 Average days on market 25)

BoiseSFActPend.gif
It seems our hidden gem has been discovered. As you can see, inventory cannot get any tighter in Boise. Almost as many pending homes as for sale. This is why you should be convinced home prices are headed higher in Boise.

This charts shows the count on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. The supply demand balance grows ever tighter and Boise home prices should continue to rise faster than normal.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow. Meridian is about half the size of Boise, but very similar in price.

Meridian had 153 existing homes sold in Oct (Med $249,900 Avg $269,850 Range $35,000 - $650,000 Average days on market 23)

MeridianSFActPend.gif
The pendings have dropped off slightly here. Just a few more homes for sale in Meridian this month, and a few less pending.

As a result, Meridian's housing supply continues to scrape along the bottom with barely a month's supply (now 1.29). The market will be strong again into 2018 with home prices rising quickly in Meridian.

Eagle, Idaho

Just northwest of Boise between the Boise River and the foothills, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 74 existing homes sold in Oct (Med $441,950 Avg $458,233 Range $135,000 - 1,185,000 Avg days on market 47)

EagleSFActPend.gif
The number of buyers in the higher price ranges is naturally lower, so the lines in my chart have not crossed for Eagle, but they are closer together than ever.

With less than a 1.5-month supply of homes for sale in Eagle, look for home prices to go higher in 2018.

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people (especially retirees) relocating to Idaho are choosing this still-quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

Star had 33 existing home sales in Oct (Med $285,000 Avg $314,209 Range $175,500 - 645,000 Avg days on market 29)

StarSFActPend.gif
Pending homes outnumber actives again in Star as new construction is strong here! The number of homes on the market in Star is certainly on the low end of the scale for the last decade.

As a result of the strong demand in Star, housing supply is extremely low here and prices should continue to climb.

Kuna, Idaho

Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute times in Canyon county.

Kuna had 34 existing home sales in Oct (Med $197,950 Avg $207,814 Range $150,000 - 469,500 Avg days on market 22)

KunaSFActPend.gif

Looks like a buying opportunity in Kuna as pendings have dropped off and Listings have jumped recently. For buyers- more choices is good. With only a 1.5-month supply of homes for sale, ook for home prices in Kuna to continue climbing in the spring.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

CanBySellerPie.gif

Canyon County has a slightly higher percentage of regular sellers as Ada and similarly, very few foreclosed and short sales. New construction is not as strong here- probably because of affordability as incomes are lower here.

CanBySellerLine.gif
New home sales are gaining in Canyon County, but not booming- only 75 sold in October (18% of all sales). As of Nov 1st, only 57 completed and unsold new homes awaited buyers in the whole county.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub (Caldwell is county seat) of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here.

Nampa had 203 existing home sales in Oct (Med $172,000 Avg $188,895 Range $36,500 - 490,000 Avg days on market 25)

NampaSFActPend.gif
Pending homes no longer outnumber those actively for sale in Nampa as the seasonal slow-down kicks in. Housing supply can't get much lower. This should push Nampa home prices even higher in 2018.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell is one of the more affordable areas in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 82 existing home sales in Oct (Med $158,000 Avg $167,844 Range $35,000 - 436,485 Avg days on market 28)

CaldwellSFActPend.gif
Same story as the rest of the valley- very few homes for sale in Caldwell, compared to demand. A few more listings. Pending homes still showing strong demand. The resulting supply reading is on the extreme low end of the scale and prices should keep climbing.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage.

Middleton had 30 existing home sales in Oct (Med $184,000 Avg $209,135 Range $62,500 - $535,000 Avg days on market 40)

MiddletonSFActPend.gif
Middleton home sales are virtually booming this year. Housing supply is as low as it can be in Middleton, so look for prices to jump in the spring.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, horse property, luxury and executive homes. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker