Boise Metro Housing Market Monitor

July 2017 Update
SW Idaho Homes & Real Estate-
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton


The year is half over already! June was again a very strong month for home sales in and around Boise, but new listings did gain some more ground on sales, increasing supply only slightly in most Treasure Valley cities.

The Treasure Valley has seen record low supply levels this year, with more homes under contract than available during the spring rush in most cities. Boise, Meridian & Kuna still have less than a month supply of homes for sale as of July 1st. It's a full-on seller's market with growing population and limited housing stock. Ask me for a free market analysis if you are thinking about selling.

It's still a great time to buy with the highest number of homes for sale and best selection of the year in mid summer. Home prices (and rents) are headed higher and mortgage rates are still near once-in-a-lifetime lows, helping you afford more home than ever. If you're waiting for a downturn, no sign of it yet. Better make your move- ask me about financing options and help with down payment & closing costs.

I track here the last 10 years of monthly trends and indicators in the Boise housing markets to help you make general decisions on the timing of buying and selling property. See also my quarterly newsletter.
---If you are thinking of buying or selling, I am always happy to provide information and advice tailored to your needs and specific properties.

Still Limited Homes For Sale in Boise Metro

Looking at a 10-year history of homes on the market really shows how extreme conditions are right now in the Boise Metro in terms of numbers of homes for sale. Listings are picking up. However, sellers in both Ada & Canyon counties are selling fast, with average days on the market of just 19 and 21 days, respectively, on existing homes sold in June.

AdaCanSFActive.gif

These are active listings in Ada & Canyon County on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction (several hundred are to-be-built or under construction).

I see several trends in this chart: The free-fall period where sellers outnumbered buyers and home prices fell over 40% until the bottom in Jan 2011. Then the Recovery from Jan 2011 to early 2016, when median existing home prices regained the previous high set in 2007. We are now in a growth phase.

This extremely low number of homes actively for sale, is nothing short of a guarantee that prices will rise. The outlook for 2017 home price appreciation in or near Boise is very strong. Double-digit annual gains are possible. I don't say that lightly. I would bet the farm on at least 6-8% this year.

Q2 2017 Quarterly Median Home Prices- Ada/Canyon County

The Boise area housing markets have been red-hot this year! For the second quarter, the Ada county median existing home price of $247,000 rose a very strong 9.3% from the previous quarter, even higher than I predicted. The Q2 median is now up 7.1% year over year.

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Canyon County's median existing home price of $159,000 for Q2 is up 8.18% from the previous quarter. Year over year, the Q2 median is up a very strong 11% in Canyon County. Can't resist tweaking renters- that's equivalent to $17,000 in added equity in one year on the median priced home that you missed out on. Contact me to buy your first home and stop falling behind.

I use only existing homes to gauge prices, because new construction is much more volatile and subjective. I also ignore monthly numbers- quarterlies are much more reliable and indicative of long-term trends in home prices. Be careful... these stats have limited relevance to an individual property, as some segments performed better or worse. Ask me for a free market analysis on your property. I would be happy to estimate sale price and proceeds.

Boise ID Metro- Home Sales

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Are people still moving here? This chart says yes very clearly. Homes sales have been building in a very solid upward trend since 2008 in Ada County, including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star & Kuna. Given the still low interest rates, strengthening local economy, growing population, low home prices and low cost of living we enjoy in SW Idaho, I don't see this trend changing yet.

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Canyon County home sales have soared to new heights in June, showing continued strength from population growth. Sales have been building a similar solid upward trend over the last few years. The largest cities of Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton have all seen strong home sales as new people move in and affordability pushes people farther out from Boise.

These charts show all monthly single-family home sales reported in the local MLS, including condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, new construction, short sales and repossessed homes.


Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices

Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of demand. By dividing the number of homes available by the number of homes under contract, we get a supply in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. If you want to know where home prices are going in any local market, look at supply levels.

Inventory

1-2 months

3-4 months

5-6 months

7-8 months

9-10 months

Price Variance

double-digit appreciation

single-digit appreciation

stable

singe-digit depreciation

double-digit depreciation



Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. With less than a month's supply of homes for sale, prices should be jumping double digits. Why haven't they? Pent-up demand. Low supply has been constraining sales. This is why I expect the market to be very strong again in the Treasure Valley at least into 2018.
AdaCanSFSupply.gif

Can we build our way out of the shortage? Yes, but developing new subdivisions for homes to be built does not happen overnight. Also, prices on new construction are still substantially higher than existing; Average sale prices in June on new construction were $78,000 higher than existing homes in Ada County and $50,000 higher in Canyon County.

Ada County, Idaho

Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here's an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory levels of homes for sale.

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The make-up of homes for sale changes constantly. Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid year. Here's the same data in a line chart showing the recent history.

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The new construction segment of the Ada county housing market continues to build momentum, but builders are falling behind demand this year. As you can see, the New-Never Occupied segment is dropping below the To-Be-Built and Under Construction segments. There are new subdivisions in the pipeline, but there's no danger of out-pacing demand soon. With 757 new homes under contract on July 1st, this equates to less than a 1-month supply at the current pace of sales on 736 new homes currently for sale in Ada County.

Foreclosures and short sales are now only a tiny slice of the housing market pie in Ada County. Home prices in the Boise area have risen consistently for years now, causing few owners to get into trouble while upside down and unable to sell.

Boise, Idaho

The crown jewel of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local trends.

Boise had 536 existing home sales in June, Med $232,250- Avg $273,252- Average days on market 16. Total homes for sale 872 on July 1st. Total pending 951!

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The lines are still crossed. As you can see, inventory cannot get any tighter in Boise. More pending homes than for sale. This is why you should be convinced home prices are headed higher in Boise.

It seems our hidden gem has been discovered. This charts shows the count on the first day of each month for the last 10 years. Boise home prices should continue to rise faster than normal. So will rents for investors. Money is still cheap. Think about it. Ask me for properties that will appreciate over time and deliver tax shelter and equity build-up with only the rents.

Meridian, Idaho

Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow. Being just west of Boise, the housing markets are very similar.

Meridian had 234 existing homes sold in June. Med $258,500- Avg $275,729- Average days on market 18. Total homes for sale 547538 on July 1st. Total pending 552!

MeridianSFActPend.gif
Just a few more homes for sale in Meridian this month, and even more under contract again.

As a result, Meridian's housing supply continues to scrape along the bottom. The market will be strong again into 2018 with home prices rising quickly in Meridian.

Eagle, Idaho

Just northwest of Boise between the Boise River and the foothills, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley.

Eagle had 86 existing homes sold in June. Med $415,000- Avg $454,671- Avg days on market 36. Total homes for sale 361 on July 1st.

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The number of buyers in the higher price ranges is naturally lower, so the lines in my chart have not crossed for Eagle, but they are closer together than ever.

The number of homes for sale in Eagle is now at a 3-year high, but pendings are up as well. The resulting supply of homes for sale in Eagle remains very low, driving prices higher.

Star, Idaho

Star Idaho is a rising star in the Treasure Valley. Many people relocating to Idaho are choosing this quaint little town for it's lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.

Star had 26 existing home sales in June. Med $279,450- Avg $298,655- Avg days on market 28. Total homes for sale 123 on July 1st.

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Pending homes are way up in Star this year as new construction is strong here! The number of homes on the market in Star is certainly on the low end of the scale for the last decade.

As a result of the strong demand in Star, housing supply is extremely low here and prices should continue to climb.

Kuna, Idaho

Located just 10 miles south of Meridian, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute times in Canyon county.

Kuna had 60 existing home sales in June. Med $211.250- Avg $227,641- Avg days on market 20. Total homes for sale 148 on July 1st.

KunaSFActPend.gif

Another explosion of homes going under contract this spring. Again, demand is out-pacing listings. Look for home prices in Kuna to continue climbing in the near future.

Canyon County, Idaho

Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. My numbers may not match others' stats for the whole county, but I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.

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Canyon County is fully recovered from the downturn- evidenced by the little slivers of foreclosed and short sales.

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New constructions levels remain well below where they should be. New home sales are up in Canyon County, but not booming- only 63 sold in June. As of July 1st, only 59 completed new homes awaited buyers in the whole county.

Nampa, Idaho

Nampa is the largest city and main hub of Canyon County. Home prices have been jumping double-digits here.

Nampa had 246 existing home sales in June, Med $179,500- Avg $197,257- Avg days on market 17. Total homes for sale 449 on July 1st.

NampaSFActPend.gif
Pending homes no longer outnumber those actively for sale in Nampa as the summer heat takes hold and more listings come on the market. Sales momentum in Nampa continues to build. Housing supply in Nampa can't get much lower. This will push prices even higher.

Caldwell, Idaho

Caldwell is one of the more affordable areas in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the county seat, this is a growing city.

Caldwell had 102 existing home sales in June. Med $157,650- Avg $170,285- Avg days on market 20. Total homes for sale 182 on July 1st. Total pending 182!

CaldwellSFActPend.gif
Same story as the rest of the valley- very few homes for sale in Caldwell, compared to demand. Pending homes showing strong demand. The resulting supply reading is on the extreme low end of the scale and prices should keep climbing.

Middleton, Idaho

Middleton is at the far northwestern edge of the Boise metro. Small town but growing with very affordable home prices.

Middleton had 33 existing home sales in June. Med $235,100- Avg $278,481- Avg days on market 24. Total homes for sale 116 on July 1st.

MiddletonSFActPend.gif
Middleton home sales are booming, judging by the extreme jump in pending homes this spring. Housing supply is as low as it can be in Middleton, so look for prices to jump.

All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.

Thanks for your interest. Why settle for just an agent? I am a broker, licensed in Idaho, and Realtor since 1991 specializing in residential real estate for sale including homes, condos, townhouses, manufactured, acreage, land, lots, horse property, luxury and executive homes. I serve Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star, Kuna, Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton, Ada County, Canyon County, Treasure Valley and Southwest Idaho.
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Dan Rowe ABR CRS GRI
Broker